Introducing Ujasusi Blog’s Weekly Africa Terrorism Monitor: Regional Intelligence Brief
Special inaugural edition covering terror attacks across Africa for the period 1–15 September 2025.
🛡️ Africa Terrorism Monitor: 1–15 September 2025 [🔓FREE ACCESS]
Editor’s Note
Welcome to the inaugural edition of Africa Terrorism Monitor, Ujasusi Blog's weekly intelligence digest. Drawing exclusively from verified open-source materials, this series tracks jihadist and terrorist activities across Africa through regional analysis. Each edition presents incident data, casualty assessments, and strategic implications with accompanying expert analysis.
Sahel — JNIM and IS Sahel
Mali — JNIM fuel blockade
On 14 September, Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) ambushed a 100-vehicle fuel convoy on the Kayes–Bamako road, destroying at least 40 trucks despite a military escort. The raid followed the group’s announcement of a blockade on fuel imports earlier in the month, signalling a move toward economic siege tactics.
Niger — Massacre in Tillabéri
On 15 September, gunmen on motorbikes killed 22 civilians at a baptism ceremony in Takoubatt, Tillabéri, before killing seven more nearby.
Burkina Faso — Continuing civilian toll
Human Rights Watch found that over 50 civilians were killed in Djibo, Gorom-Gorom and Youba since May, mostly by JNIM and Islamic State Sahel Province.
Analysis
JNIM’s convoy interdictions show economic siege tactics against Mali’s junta, while recurrent massacres in Niger and Burkina Faso highlight militant competition for border corridors. Without cross-border coordination, Sahelian states risk further erosion of security.
Lake Chad Basin — Boko Haram & ISWAP
Nigeria (Borno) — Mass-casualty raid
On 5–6 September, Boko Haram fighters attacked Darul Jamal village in Bama LGA, killing at least 60 people and torching dozens of homes.
Cameroon (Far North) — Cross-border raids
On 7 September, militants raided the villages of Onzal, Mandoussa and Modoko in Cameroon’s Far North, killing six civilians, abducting others and burning a local hospital.
Analysis
Boko Haram’s targeting of returnee villages in Borno aims to deter resettlement. In Cameroon, cross-border raids show how militants exploit jurisdictional gaps. The withdrawal of Niger from the Multinational Joint Task Force in March 2025 has further weakened security coordination.
Horn of Africa — Al-Shabaab & Regional Risk
Somalia — Precision strikes
On 9 September, U.S. Africa Command conducted airstrikes in Somalia’s Shabelle region targeting Al-Shabaab fighters, in coordination with Somali forces.
Kenya — Heightened alert
On 19 August, the U.S. Embassy in Nairobi issued a terror alert warning of credible Al-Shabaab threats to hotels, malls, embassies, and churches.
Analysis
Somalia’s offensive is degrading Al-Shabaab’s logistics, but the group retains capacity for cross-border retaliation. Nairobi remains at risk of infiltration and urban attacks.
Great Lakes — ADF/ISCAP Escalation
DR Congo (North Kivu) — Funeral massacre
On 8–9 September, ADF militants massacred at least 61 civilians at a funeral in Ntoyo, Lubero territory, many of them beheaded.
Uganda — Cross-border pressure
Ugandan troops under Operation Shujaa clashed with ADF fighters in Ituri, leaving two soldiers dead in early September.
Analysis
ADF massacres terrorise civilians and destabilise communities. Uganda’s forward deployment contains ADF activity but risks overstretch unless paired with stronger intelligence-sharing.
Northern Mozambique — Cabo Delgado Resurgence
Mocímboa da Praia — Night raid
On 7 September, insurgents launched a nighttime assault on Mocímboa da Praia, killing six civilians on the outskirts before being repelled.
Palma district — Renewed activity
In August, militants intensified attacks in Pthe alma district near LNG projects, displacing over 50,000 civilians in recent weeks. Additional reporting confirmed the displacement of over 50,000 civilians.
Analysis
The Cabo Delgado insurgency is regaining momentum, with raids around Mocímboa and Palma threatening LNG investment and humanitarian stability.
Global Snapshot — Beyond Africa
ISIS-K (Afghanistan region)
At a 13 September UN briefing, officials warned that ISIS-K continues to pose a significant transnational threat and is seeking to project attacks abroad.
AQAP (Yemen)
On 16 August 2024, a suicide car bombing in Mudiyah killed 16 Southern Transitional Council fighters, showing AQAP’s capacity to mount lethal operations despite leadership losses.
Key Trends & Analysis
Economic disruption as a tool of pressure
JNIM’s fuel blockade in Mali reflects a tactical shift from purely kinetic warfare to targeting supply chains. Disrupting fuel supplies undermines state capacity and public confidence, a method that may spread to other contexts where militants cannot hold ground but can weaken government functions.
Escalation of brutality and civilian targeting
The Ntoyo funeral massacre highlights ADF’s increasing brutality in symbolic spaces such as funerals and churches. Methods like machete killings and arson maximise terror, propaganda value, and the destruction of community trust.
Exploitation of border zones and vacuums
Tillabéri (Niger), Far North (Cameroon), and North Kivu (DRC) illustrate how porous frontiers, multiple militant actors, and overstretched militaries enable cross-border raids, ambushes, and massacres. These zones remain the epicentres of extremist manoeuvre.
Humanitarian impact and displacement
Attacks are forcing mass displacement. Over 50,000 fled Cabo Delgado in recent weeks, while communities in eastern DRC abandoned villages after the Ntoyo massacre. Beyond safety, survivors face trauma, loss of livelihoods, and urgent humanitarian needs.
Intelligence and response challenges
States across Africa struggle to anticipate attacks, interdict militants in remote areas, and coordinate across borders. Weak intelligence fusion and insufficient rapid-response capacity leave civilians exposed.
Outlook
Short-term (1–3 months):
Militants will continue ambushes, convoy interdictions, and mass killings to sustain momentum. Displacements in Mozambique and DRC will rise, while JNIM expands blockade tactics in Mali.
Medium-term (3–12 months):
Weakening of multinational security frameworks (MNJTF, G5 Sahel) will deepen coordination gaps. Militants are likely to entrench themselves in border regions, with Al-Shabaab probing Kenya or Ethiopia as retaliation for Somali offensives.
Long-term (12+ months):
If governance and community security do not improve, these conflicts risk entrenchment as protracted insurgencies. Eastern DRC and Cabo Delgado may evolve into permanent instability zones, fuelling further displacement and international humanitarian burdens.
Methodology & Advisory
This monitor is based on open-source intelligence (OSINT) from verifiable, reputable outlets, NGOs, and official statements. Every incident is hyperlinked to its primary source. Unverified reports have been excluded.
📌 Africa Terrorism Monitor is a weekly intelligence series. This inaugural edition covers two weeks (1–15 September 2025); future editions will return to a standard weekly cycle.
Reader Engagement
This is the first issue of Africa Terrorism Monitor. We welcome your comments, suggestions, and feedback on how this series can best serve analysts, policymakers, and informed readers. Your insights will help refine future editions and strengthen Ujasusi Blog’s role as a trusted intelligence platform.
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