Tanzania: Why 2025 election likely won't mirror Senegal's opposition victory

Collage of Tanzania’s main political parties - CCM, Chadema, ACT-Wazalendo (Photo/Barua Ya Chahali)

The dynamics of political transitions in Africa often captivate global attention, especially when opposition parties successfully challenge ruling parties through democratic means. Senegal's recent history serves as a notable example, where the opposition managed to oust the ruling party through the ballot box. However, projecting a similar scenario onto Tanzania's political landscape for the 2025 general elections presents significant challenges. This essay aims to explore the contextual factors and dynamics specific to Tanzania, elucidating why a Senegal-like opposition ousting is unlikely.

The Divergent Political Trajectories of Tanzania and Senegal