Intelligence Forecast | What Comes After Tanzania's Uncontested October 2025 Elections? Decoding the Regime's Constitutional Endgame

Screenshot collage showing U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Human Rights Watch statements criticising Tanzania’s pre-election crackdown, alongside images of opposition leader Tundu Lissu raising his fist and President Samia Suluhu Hassan. The image highlights growing international concern ahead of Tanzania’s October 29, 2025, elections.

Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 09 October 2025 | 0335 BST

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Intelligence Summary:

The CCM regime under its current administration faces an endgame where surrender equals prosecution. With over 200 documented enforced disappearances since 2019, regime officials are bound by shared culpability in crimes against humanity. This creates an inescapable strategic logic: constitutional manipulation to remove term limits represents the regime’s only viable path to avoid accountability. Credible intelligence suggests the post-October 2025 parliament has been deliberately stacked with administration loyalists prepared to approve constitutional amendments. However, the regime’s most sophisticated strategy is exploiting constitutional reform debates themselves—both opposition demands for stronger protections and regime proposals for term limit removal serve authoritarian consolidation because Tanzania’s current constitution already prohibits almost certainly everything the regime is doing. The problem isn’t constitutional text but systematic violation with complete impunity.

Assessment: Constitutional manipulation (70% probability by 2027) represents the regime’s primary endgame, transforming temporary repression into sustainable authoritarianism.