Intelligence Outlook | 🇹🇿 Tanzania’s October 29 Test: When Electoral Fraud Meets Gen Z Uprising

This meme — now viral across Tanzanian social media — captures the absurdity of the 2025 general election: President Samia Suluhu Hassan appears to be running against herself. With opposition leader Tundu Lissu jailed, Luhaga Mpina disqualified, and over 200 abductions reported nationwide, many argue that democracy in Tanzania has been replaced by a one-woman race.

Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 28 October 2025 | 0300 GMT

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BOTTOM LINE UP FRONT: Tanzania’s October 29, 2025 general election occurs under conditions historically correlated with successful mass protest movements. Comparative analysis of 2024-2025 democratic uprisings across four countries reveals Tanzania possesses multiple indicators associated with sustained civil resistance: systematic opposition elimination creating moral legitimacy for protest, youth population exceeding 60% generating demographic momentum, recent successful regional Gen Z movements providing tactical blueprints, and documented security apparatus fractures indicating potential force hesitation.

Assessed with high confidence: President Samia Suluhu Hassan will secure a fraudulent electoral victory. Assessed with moderate confidence: Planned demonstrations possess sufficient mobilisation infrastructure, international precedent, and domestic grievances to generate sustained civil resistance regardless of election outcome.

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