🇹🇿 TANZANIA INTELLIGENCE BRIEF: Mass Atrocity Allegations Following October 2025 Election — 3,000 Reported Dead, 240 Charged with Treason, Regional Crisis Escalates
Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 08 November 2025 | 0340 GMT
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Executive Summary
Tanzania faces unprecedented accusations of state-orchestrated mass atrocities following President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s controversial re-election on October 29, 2025, with 98% of reported votes. A coalition of over 40 African civil society organisations has alleged that more than 3,000 people have been killed in post-election violence, with security forces accused of conducting systematic extrajudicial executions, operating mass graves across multiple regions, and implementing a campaign of enforced disappearances targeting dissenters. At least 240 individuals have been formally charged with treason in Dar es Salaam courts, facing potential death sentences for allegedly inciting demonstrations. The crisis has triggered regional diplomatic tensions, particularly with Kenya, where an estimated 250,000 nationals residing in Tanzania report targeted violence. International human rights organisations and regional bodies including the African Union and Southern African Development Community face mounting pressure to intervene in what civil society groups characterise as crimes against humanity requiring immediate international investigation and prosecution.
Election Context and Opposition Exclusion
The October 29, 2025 Tanzanian general election represented a fundamental departure from democratic norms, with President Samia Suluhu Hassan securing a reported 98% victory margin in circumstances international observers have characterised as falling “short of democratic standards.” The electoral process was structurally compromised before voting commenced, with key opposition candidates either imprisoned or administratively barred from contesting, effectively transforming the election into what opposition figures denounced as a “coronation not a contest.”
President Samia, who initially assumed office in March 2021 following the death of President John Magufuli, had been credited during her early tenure with easing some of the authoritarian restrictions implemented by her predecessor. However, the political environment underwent systematic deterioration in the lead-up to the 2025 election, with civil society organisations documenting intensified surveillance of opposition movements, criminalisation of dissent, and targeted restrictions on women’s organising and feminist activism.
The exclusion of viable opposition candidates created conditions in which the election result was predetermined, eliminating genuine electoral competition and reducing the October 29 poll to a ratification exercise rather than a democratic contest. Opposition parties and civil society groups rejected the election as illegitimate before polling commenced, setting the stage for the post-election crisis that would follow.
Post-Election Violence: Divergent Casualty Accounts
The immediate aftermath of the October 29 election witnessed violent clashes between security forces and protesters contesting the election’s legitimacy across multiple Tanzanian cities. Casualty figures remain contested, with Tanzanian authorities systematically downplaying the scale of violence while human rights organisations and civil society coalitions report mass killings on an unprecedented scale.
The Jumuiya Ni Yetu movement and Pan-African Solidarity Collective, representing over 40 African civil society organisations spanning Kenya, Nigeria, South Africa, Zimbabwe, Zambia, Uganda, and Senegal, have alleged that more than 3,000 people have been killed in what they characterise as “state-engineered massacres.” These organisations claim security personnel conducted systematic operations involving nighttime raids on residential areas, forcible removal of citizens from homes, and extrajudicial executions carried out on doorsteps and within residences.
According to witness testimonies compiled by these coalitions, security forces specifically targeted males over the age of 15, conducting door-to-door operations across urban centres including Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, Mbeya, and Songwe. The most disturbing allegations include the shooting death of a one-year-old child, representing the youngest reported fatality in the post-election violence.
Medical personnel at Muhimbili Hospital in Dar es Salaam reportedly observed vehicles marked “Municipal Burial Services” collecting bodies of individuals believed to have died during protests, suggesting systematic efforts to manage casualty evidence. Human rights organisations have alleged that hospital facilities were placed under heavy security presence, with medical staff receiving instructions to deny critical care to gunshot victims—a claim summarised in reports that doctors and nurses were ordered to “maliza” (finish/kill) those in critical condition from gunshot wounds.
The Tanzanian government has not provided official casualty figures and has maintained that the election was conducted in a “free and fair” manner, dismissing allegations of systematic violence as exaggerated or fabricated by opposition groups and foreign actors seeking to destabilise the country.
Mass Graves and Enforced Disappearances
Among the most serious allegations emerging from the post-election period are claims of mass graves being excavated across multiple regions as part of a systematic effort to conceal the scale of killings. Civil society organisations report that mass burial sites have been identified or are under construction in Arusha, Mwanza, Dar es Salaam, Mbeya, and Songwe, with witnesses describing security personnel involvement in grave preparation and body disposal operations.
Forensic evidence reportedly indicates that many victims bore gunshot wounds to the head and chest, suggesting targeted killings rather than casualties resulting from crowd-control operations or accidental discharge during confrontations. The pattern of wounds documented by medical personnel who examined bodies before removal indicates deliberate lethal force application at close range.
The coalition of civil society organisations estimates that at least 2,000 individuals reported missing by families may be among those interred in these mass graves, representing a systematic campaign of enforced disappearances designed to eliminate witnesses, intimidate opposition movements, and obscure the true casualty toll. Families seeking information about missing relatives have faced harassment, intimidation, and arrest when attempting to file missing persons reports or inquire at hospitals and morgues about unidentified remains.
The alleged systematic nature of these disappearances, combined with reports of security forces conducting targeted nighttime raids and maintaining lists of individuals to be detained or eliminated, suggests coordination at multiple levels of Tanzania’s security apparatus rather than isolated incidents of excessive force by individual officers.
Treason Charges and Judicial Proceedings
At least 240 individuals have been charged with treason in proceedings at a Dar es Salaam court, marking one of the largest mass treason prosecutions in recent African political history. The defendants, who were not asked to enter pleas during initial court appearances, face charges related to allegedly inciting demonstrations with the intention of obstructing the election process.
According to charge sheets reviewed by international media, the prosecution alleges that the defendants organised, promoted, or participated in protests designed to disrupt the electoral process and challenge the legitimacy of President Samia’s re-election. Treason convictions in Tanzania carry potential death sentences, though the country’s established legal practice involves commuting most death sentences to life imprisonment. Tanzania’s last execution occurred in the 1990s, suggesting that convicted defendants would likely face life imprisonment rather than capital punishment if found guilty.
Among those charged is Jenifer Jovin, a prominent Tanzanian businesswoman accused of encouraging protesters to purchase gas masks for protection against police tear gas deployment during demonstrations. The inclusion of social media influencers among the defendants reflects the government’s focus on individuals accused of using digital platforms to organise resistance or amplify opposition narratives challenging the election’s legitimacy.
The treason proceedings have been adjourned until November 19, 2025, with defendants remaining in custody pending trial. Human rights organisations have raised concerns about fair trial guarantees, noting that the politically charged atmosphere surrounding the cases may compromise judicial independence and defendants’ ability to mount effective legal defences.
Regional Diplomatic Crisis: Kenya-Tanzania Tensions
The post-election violence has triggered a significant diplomatic crisis between Tanzania and Kenya, with an estimated 250,000 Kenyan nationals living, working, or conducting business in Tanzania reporting targeted violence and systematic intimidation by Tanzanian security forces. Reports indicate that Kenyan citizens have been specifically identified and attacked during the security crackdown, with some killed, injured, or detained on suspicion of participating in or supporting opposition protests.
John Ogutu, a Kenyan teacher working in Dar es Salaam, was fatally shot by police while purchasing food, according to his sister’s account to international media. Rights groups report that his body cannot be traced for repatriation and burial, exemplifying the broader challenges families face in locating and recovering remains of victims killed during the post-election period.
Kenyan Foreign Minister Musalia Mudavadi conducted a telephone conversation with his Tanzanian counterpart, Mahmoud Thabit Kombo, requesting assurances regarding the safety of Kenyan nationals in Tanzania. Mudavadi emphasised “the importance of safeguarding the rights, safety, and dignity” of Kenyans residing in Tanzania and stated that concerns would be “addressed through established diplomatic and consular channels.”
Tanzanian authorities have justified increased scrutiny of foreign nationals by claiming intelligence indicating that “some foreigners had crossed the border through illegal points with the intention to commit crimes, including causing unrest.” This explanation has been interpreted by regional observers as an attempt to attribute domestic opposition to external agitation rather than acknowledging legitimate grievances within Tanzanian society.
The Kenyan foreign affairs ministry has established emergency contact protocols, requesting relatives of Kenyans experiencing distress in Tanzania to provide names, addresses, and emergency contact information to facilitate consular assistance. Reports indicate many Kenyans, particularly those employed in private schools, are fleeing Tanzania following government warnings to employers against engaging individuals without proper work permits—a directive interpreted as targeting Kenyan workers specifically.
The crisis recalls similar tensions in May 2025 when diplomatic relations were strained over Tanzania’s treatment of Kenyans who travelled to Dar es Salaam to observe the treason trial of opposition leader Tundu Lissu. Several Kenyan observers were deported, while prominent Kenyan activist Boniface Mwangi and Ugandan activist Agather Atuhaire went missing and later reported experiencing torture and sexual mistreatment while in custody.
International Response and Calls for Intervention
The coalition of African civil society organisations has issued urgent demands for President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s immediate resignation and prosecution for crimes against humanity. The statement, endorsed by organisations across the continent, argues that President Samia “lacks legitimacy, has lost the moral mandate to govern, and now presides over mass atrocities.”
The coalition has called on multiple regional and continental bodies to intervene:
African Union (AU): Civil society groups demand the immediate convening of an emergency Peace and Security Council meeting and invocation of the AU’s mandate under Article 4 of its Constitutive Act, which authorises intervention in member states in cases of war crimes, genocide, and crimes against humanity.
Southern African Development Community (SADC): The coalition specifically called on SADC leadership, particularly referencing President Peter Mutharika, to urgently intervene and pressure the Tanzanian government to cease human rights violations and ongoing crimes against humanity.
International Fact-Finding Mission: Human rights organisations have requested the establishment of an independent international investigation to document alleged atrocities, identify perpetrators, gather forensic evidence from mass grave sites, and compile testimony from survivors and witnesses for potential future prosecutions.
The coalition characterised Tanzania’s current situation as a “humanitarian catastrophe” and warned that “dictators of the region are collaborating to spill more blood,” framing the crisis as part of a broader pattern of authoritarian consolidation across East Africa requiring coordinated regional and international response.
Intelligence Assessment and Outlook
The allegations emerging from Tanzania represent the most serious accusations of state-orchestrated mass atrocities in the country’s post-independence history. The scale of reported casualties—3,000 dead according to civil society organisations versus the government’s refusal to acknowledge systematic violence—creates fundamentally incompatible narratives that cannot both be accurate.
Key intelligence considerations include:
Evidence verification challenges: Independent verification of casualty figures and mass grave allegations remains extremely difficult given restricted media access, intimidation of witnesses, and government control of hospitals and morgues.
Security apparatus coordination: The systematic nature of alleged operations suggests coordination across multiple security agencies rather than isolated incidents of excessive force, indicating potential command-level authorisation.
Regional stability implications: The Kenya-Tanzania diplomatic crisis threatens East African Community cohesion and could trigger broader regional instability if Kenyan nationals continue experiencing targeted violence.
International jurisdiction questions: The gravity of allegations may eventually trigger International Criminal Court preliminary examinations if domestic accountability mechanisms fail to materialise.
Political transition dynamics: Civil society demands for President Samia’s resignation and establishment of an interim government suggest the crisis has evolved beyond an electoral dispute into fundamental challenges to regime legitimacy.
The situation requires sustained international attention, independent investigation, and regional diplomatic engagement to prevent further escalation and establish accountability for documented human rights violations. The coming weeks will be critical in determining whether regional bodies effectively respond to the crisis or whether Tanzania’s post-election violence becomes another chapter in the pattern of impunity that has characterised mass atrocities across the African continent.
SOURCES: BBC News, Capital News Kenya, Jumuiya Ni Yetu Coalition, Pan-African Solidarity Collective, African Union, SADC
CLASSIFICATION: Open Source Intelligence Brief
DISTRIBUTION: Unrestricted
NEXT UPDATE: 19 November 2025 (Treason trial proceedings)