🇹🇿 Tanzania in Turmoil: Gen Z Protests Shake Samia’s Regime After Disputed Election
🚨 CRITICAL INTELLIGENCE ASSESSMENT
Classification: OPEN SOURCE INTELLIGENCE
Intelligence Cut-Off Time: 0335 GMT | 30 October 2025
Analyst Assessment: HIGH CONFIDENCE
Distribution: Ujasusi Blog Subscribers
🧭 Executive Summary
Tanzania’s 29 October 2025 general election ignited the largest protest movement since independence. What began as a vote rapidly escalated into a nationwide uprising led mainly by Gen Z youth rejecting a process they deemed fraudulent.
Despite a nationwide internet blackout and a 6 PM curfew, protests erupted across Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, Mbeya, and Morogoro — and in many districts, the curfew was openly defied. Security forces fired live rounds and tear gas; hundreds were detained.
Unverified field reports suggest some TPDF units refrained from attacking protesters, though this remains unconfirmed.
President Samia Suluhu Hassan sought a second term after systematic exclusion of opponents. The unrest now challenges both her authority and CCM’s six-decade dominance.
🧩 Key Judgments
The 29 October demonstrations mark the gravest threat to CCM rule since multiparty politics began (1992).
The protests are youth-driven, multi-city, and coordinated despite the blackout and curfew.
Security-force loyalty remains the decisive variable.
Madagascar (Oct 2025): Gen Z-led protests and a military defection forced President Andry Rajoelina to flee; Colonel Michael Randrianirina of the elite CAPSAT unit assumed power on 17 October.
Nepal (Sept 2025): Youth-led protests against a social-media ban and nepotism forced Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign after the army declined to fire on crowds.
Tanzania now shows similar early indicators: youth mobilisation, economic distress, and a crisis of legitimacy.