Intelligence Insight | Sudan’s Looming Partition: Hemedti’s Rival Government, Salah Gosh’s Islamist Comeback, and the UAE–Eritrea Factor
Ujasusi Blog | African Conflict Tracker | 01 September 2025 | 0015 BST
Executive Summary
Sudan has crossed a political Rubicon. The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) have sworn in a rival government in Nyala—a deliberate bid to institutionalise authority beyond Khartoum, and a decisive step towards de facto partition. In the shadows of this move, former intelligence supremo Salah Abdallah Mohamed “Gosh” has resurfaced, regrouping Islamists in Asmara under Eritrean auspices—positioning himself and his networks to shape an Islamist‑tinged Khartoum if the country fractures. These twin tracks—RSF’s state‑building in Darfur and Islamist realignment around the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF)—are converging into a single, larger story: two competing futures for Sudan.
Alongside the internal dynamics is an unmistakable external calculus. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) is central to the war economy through the gold trade and has been implicated in arming the RSF, while Eritrea is hosting Islamist actors and hedging for leverage with both camps. The humanitarian stakes are catastrophic: 20.9 million people targeted for life‑saving aid in 2025, and access is shrinking as front lines harden.
Key point: Treat partition as the primary frame. Gosh’s manoeuvres matter because they shape what Khartoum becomes if Sudan splits; Hemedti’s move matters because it accelerates the institutionalisation of a rival state.