From Reformer to Dictator: An Intelligence Analysis of Samia Suluhu's Authoritarian Turn in Tanzania
Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 07 November 2025 | 0835 GMT
Executive Summary
This intelligence analysis provides an exhaustive examination of the causal factors underlying Tanzania’s political transformation under the leadership of President Samia Suluhu Hassan. The period from March 2021 to November 2025 has been characterised by a profound shift from an initial, reconciliatory posture to a severe, systemic, and violent authoritarianism. This regression culminated in the lethal state crackdown on nationwide protests following the deeply flawed general election of October 29, 2025.
The analysis concludes that the initial “reform” period, defined by the President’s 4Rs philosophy, was not a genuine democratic opening but rather a pragmatic and temporary phase of political consolidation. This strategy was designed to differentiate her administration from that of her predecessor, John Magufuli, stabilise the economy, and secure her own power base within the ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party.