South Sudan Intelligence Brief | Salva Kiir's Sacking Spree Accelerates Ahead of 2026 Elections
Ujasusi Blog’s Horn of Africa Monitoring Team | 🗓️09 July 2025 | 🕜0130 BST
🕵️♂️ Executive Summary
President Salva Kiir Mayardit's latest round of high-level dismissals and appointments marks a notable intensification of executive shake-ups in South Sudan. With just over a year until the scheduled general elections in December 2026, Kiir appears to be consolidating power, neutralising rivals, and reconfiguring key institutions. The replacement of the Chief of Defence Forces—only seven months after the last appointment—alongside other strategic moves signals mounting political manoeuvring as the country attempts to transition from a fragile peace toward democratic governance.
📌 Key Developments
🪖 Appointment of New Army Chief
Date: 8 July 2025
Action: President Kiir appointed Gen. Dau Aturjong Nyuol as the new Chief of the South Sudan Defense Forces (SSDF).
Predecessor: Gen. Paul Nang Majok, relieved after only seven months in office. No reasons or new assignments announced.
Background: Gen. Aturjong, formerly of the SPLA-in-Opposition (SPLA-IO) under Dr. Riek Machar, rejoined the government side after the 2015 peace deal. A seasoned military figure from Bahr el Ghazal, his appointment suggests a calculated move to balance ethnic and political loyalties within the armed forces.
🛫 Civil Aviation Authority Reshuffle
New Appointment: Michael Lopuke Lotyam as Chairman of the South Sudan Civil Aviation Authority.
Significance: Aviation oversight is critical for international engagement, particularly in humanitarian coordination and oil exports. Leadership here can affect strategic mobility and diplomatic visibility.
🧭 Greater Pibor Administrative Area (GPAA) Leadership Change
New Administrator: Gola Boyoi replaces Peter Guzulu Maze.
Strategic Implication: GPAA is a semi-autonomous region with historical volatility. Leadership shifts here often reflect deeper realignments in local allegiances and centre-periphery dynamics.
🌾 Ministry of Agriculture Advisory Position
Appointee: Evans Kenyi Solomon as Technical Adviser.
Observation: While seemingly minor, such appointments reinforce patronage networks in resource-dependent sectors.
🧨 SPLM Party Reorganisation
Two Weeks Prior: Kiir removed Dr. James Wani Igga as SPLM Secretary General and appointed Paul Lagole in his place.
Second Deputy SG: Baba Medan Konyi was named head of Administration and Finance.
Trend: A pattern of replacing old-guard SPLM leaders with newer or more loyal cadres is becoming increasingly apparent.
🔍 Strategic Analysis
⚔️ Security Sector Fragmentation or Realignment?
Gen. Majok's abrupt dismissal from the top military post—without public explanation—raises alarms. He was instrumental in leading SSPDF integration efforts, a critical plank of the 2018 Revitalised Peace Agreement. His removal may undermine the cohesion of the national army, especially amid unresolved grievances from former SPLA-IO and other armed factions.
By bringing Gen. Aturjong—originally from SPLA-IO—into the apex of the defence command, Kiir may be aiming to neutralise Machar's leverage while appealing to former opposition constituencies. Yet, such moves may simultaneously deepen mistrust among already wary factions.
🧮 Power Consolidation via Bureaucratic Reshuffling
The appointments across aviation, agriculture, and administrative zones reflect a broader statecraft pattern: Kiir is placing perceived loyalists in critical bureaucratic and technocratic positions. These reshuffles are not merely functional but deeply political, shaping the institutional landscape ahead of elections.
Especially in the Greater Pibor Administrative Area, changes in local leadership could affect peace arrangements, resource control, and community-level violence management. These are zones where control over chiefs and administrators translates into votes and loyalty.
🗳️ Electoral Calculations and Pre-positioning
The sweeping personnel changes coincide with rising speculation about Kiir's strategy for the 2026 elections. By removing influential figures like James Wani Igga and installing relatively lower-profile figures such as Paul Lagole, Kiir is recalibrating the SPLM to be more amenable to his inner circle.
The timing—just 17 months before elections—is crucial. It provides sufficient runway to operationalise loyalty, fund mobilisation, and institutionally entrench allies. This dynamic is a hallmark of pre-election authoritarian consolidation seen in other post-conflict African states.
🔮 Outlook Scenarios
Scenario 1: Authoritarian Entrenchment
Kiir continues purging and appointing figures to remove dissent within the SPLM and the security sector. This could lead to an election with a predetermined outcome, risking another cycle of discontent and violence.
Scenario 2: Stalled Security Sector Reform
The abrupt dismissal of Gen. Majok derails progress on unifying the army. Trust among factions deteriorates, and rival militias—nominally integrated—become dormant spoilers.
Scenario 3: Fragmented Opposition Regroups
Disaffected SPLM figures (like James Wani Igga) and opposition-aligned military officers may begin coalescing into alternative political configurations. This could either invigorate democratic competition or precipitate parallel instability.
☕ Support Ujasusi Blog
If you value the intelligence insights shared here, consider showing your support through a small donation. Your contribution helps keep this platform independent, focused, and thriving.
Scan below to donate: