Intelligence Briefing | Why the Trump-Brokered Rwanda–DRC Peace Deal Is Unlikely to Succeed

Ujasusi Blog's Great Lake Region Monitoring Team | 22 June 2025 | 0130 BST

On 21 June 2025, U.S. President Donald J. Trump announced a breakthrough peace agreement between Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), which he claimed as one of his administration's great foreign policy achievements. The signing, scheduled for 23 June in Washington, D.C., was presented by Trump as a "Great Day for Africa" and a moment worthy of Nobel Peace Prize consideration.

However, while the announcement may generate headlines and boost Trump's international profile, the deal's long-term sustainability is highly questionable. Deep-rooted historical tensions, unresolved security threats, and the complex geopolitical dynamics of the Great Lakes region all suggest that the Trump-brokered accord is more of a symbolic diplomatic gesture than a lasting solution.

This intelligence briefing explores the structural, strategic, and political reasons why the peace deal is unlikely to endure.