Scenario Analysis: How Gachagua vs Ruto Could Play Out in Kenya’s 2027 Election
Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 16 September 2025 | 2300 BST
🔍 Executive Summary
Former Kenyan Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has formally declared his 2027 presidential ambitions, pledging to “liberate Kenya.” His announcement escalates a political rift with President William Ruto, underlining divisions within the United Democratic Alliance (UDA). This assessment evaluates the drivers, implications, risks, and scenarios surrounding Gachagua’s candidacy and its impact on Kenya’s stability and governance landscape.
🏛️ Background: From Ally to Rival
🤝 The 2022 Alliance
In the 2022 general elections, Ruto and Gachagua campaigned together under the UDA banner, leveraging the bottom-up economic model to galvanise support.
Their partnership was instrumental in delivering victory, especially in Mount Kenya, where Gachagua acted as the bloc’s political anchor.
⚔️ Emergence of Conflict
Once in office, power struggles emerged:
Gachagua accused Ruto of sidelining Mount Kenya’s interests.
Cabinet reshuffles weakened Gachagua’s influence.
Rival factions within UDA, allegedly funded by the State House, undermined his position.
By 2024, the rift became public, with Gachagua increasingly framing himself as a betrayed regional defender.