The global operations claimed by Islamic State (IS) have seen a slight uptick compared to the previous month. In September 2023, IS Central Command claimed responsibility for 56 attacks, a number that rose to 62 in October.
Nevertheless, when comparing to the same period in 2022, a remarkable contrast remains. In October 2022, IS claimed responsibility for 95 attacks, rendering this October's number somewhat insignificant. However, as TRAC has stated in the past, this conspicuous 35% decline is a deliberate tactic employed by the leadership of Islamic State since early 2023, whose objective is to portray an overall decline in group operations, which is only reaffirmed by the mainstream media wishful narrative.
October's downward trajectory is not only evident in claimed operations but also in unclaimed activities. This month, TRAC recorded 63 IS operations that were not officially claimed or even acknowledged by IS central command. It is worth noting that this marks a significant shift from the previous month when TRAC documented approximately 90 unclaimed attacks.
Interestingly, however, in October, there was no distinction between claimed and unclaimed operations for Islamic State supporters, a first-of-its-kind observation. Notably, TRAC attributed these unclaimed operations to IS based on the targets, tactics, and locations associated with IS areas of activity. When you combine both claimed and unclaimed operations, the total stands at 125 attacks, which signifies a 15% decrease from the previous month.
This intriguing development compels TRAC to consider whether the Islamic State is employing a consistent “strategy of deliberate silence” even with regard to unclaimed operations.
While there was an overall decline in attacks, there are certain areas that did see an uptick in activity, most notably Uganda with five claimed attacks after a relatively quite period since June 2023. Since Islamic State established a new organizational structure “Mekteb-i-Furkan” in September, a framework that operates under the guise of a bookstore and purportedly sends IS fighters from Turkey disguised as humanitarian aid workers to Sub-Saharan Africa, it is TRAC's assessment that we will see more attacks coming out under this new framework in places like Uganda, Mali, and Sudan.
SOURCE: TRAC