No Reforms, No Elections': Assessing Tundu Lissu's First Year as Chadema Chairman—269 Days Detained
Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 26 January 2026 | 0440 GMT
Snapshot
Tundu Lissu served 269 days of his first year as Chadema chairperson in detention on treason charges following his January 2025 election. His confrontational “No Reforms, No Elections” strategy triggered systematic state repression, culminating in the regime massacring approximately 10,000 civilians over three days following Tanzania’s October 2025 elections, where President Samia Suluhu Hassan claimed 98% victory.
Table of Contents
How Did Tundu Lissu Become Chadema Chairman?
What Was Lissu’s Strategic Platform as Chairman?
How Did the Regime Respond to Lissu’s Leadership?
What Happened During Tanzania’s October 2025 Elections?
How Many Civilians Were Killed in October 2025?
What Role Did TISS Play in the Repression?
How Did Chadema Maintain Operations With Lissu Imprisoned?
How Did the International Community Respond?
What Strategic Choices Did Lissu Face as Chairman?
How Does Tanzania Compare to Regional Contexts?
What Did Lissu Achieve Despite Imprisonment?
What Are the Security Implications for Tanzania?
What Is the Probability of Future Accountability?
What Does Lissu’s Leadership Mean for Tanzania’s Opposition?
Conclusion: 269 Days in Prison, A Regime’s Legitimacy Destroyed
How Did Tundu Lissu Become Chadema Chairman?
Election Details (22 January 2025):
Tundu Lissu defeated incumbent Freeman Mbowe by 31 votes during Chadema’s annual general assembly at Mlimani City conference hall in Dar es Salaam. The election ran from 20-22 January 2025, ending Mbowe’s 21-year tenure and making Lissu the party’s fourth chairperson since its founding.
Strategic Context:
The chairmanship transition occurred after CCM secured 99% of seats in 2024 local government elections through systematic opposition candidate disqualification. In response, Chadema adopted its “No Reforms, No Elections” campaign in December 2024, positioning Lissu as a more confrontational alternative to Mbowe’s gradualist approach.
Alongside Lissu’s victory, delegates elected John Heche as deputy chairperson for Tanzania Mainland and Said Mzee Said for Zanzibar.
Lissu’s Political Background:
Before becoming chairman, Lissu served as Member of Parliament for Singida East (2010-2020) and survived 16 gunshot wounds in a 2017 assassination attempt outside Parliament. He spent extended periods in exile in Belgium (2017-2020, 2020-2023), served as president of the Tanganyika Law Society, and was Chadema’s presidential candidate in the 2020 elections.
What Was Lissu’s Strategic Platform as Chairman?
“No Reforms, No Elections” Campaign Components:
Upon assuming chairmanship, Lissu prioritised Chadema’s confrontational reform campaign with specific operational tactics. The party launched a signature collection campaign targeting 15 million Tanzanians to petition international organisations, affirming that current circumstances did not guarantee free and fair elections.
Primary Demands:
Independent electoral commission restructuring
Constitutional reforms limiting executive power
Cessation of enforced disappearances and extrajudicial killings
Restoration of civic space for political activity
International election observation mechanisms
Operational Tactics:
Public rallies in southern highland regions
International petition to global organisations
Grassroots mobilisation through parliamentary candidates
Strategic communication: elections lack legitimacy without reforms
Justification Framework:
Deputy Chairman John Heche provided the strategic rationale, arguing there could be no meaningful Chadema participation under an electoral system “rigged” in favour of the ruling CCM. He cited systematic irregularities in 2019, 2020, and 2024 elections—including arbitrary disqualifications and police interference—as evidence of CCM’s fundamental aversion to genuine electoral competition.
How Did the Regime Respond to Lissu’s Leadership?
Timeline of State Repression:
9 April 2025 – Arrest:
Lissu was arrested in Mbinga, Ruvuma Region following a public rally promoting the “No Reforms, No Elections” campaign. Security forces transported him over 1,000 kilometres overnight to Dar es Salaam, using teargas and live ammunition to disperse supporters. He was detained at Ukonga Central Prison, Tanzania’s maximum security facility.
10-11 April 2025 – Charges Filed:
Lissu faced four separate charges:
Count 1: Incitement to obstruct 2025 General Election (treason—death penalty applicable)
Count 2: Publishing false information regarding candidate exclusions (Cyber Crime Act 2015)
Count 3: False claims of police involvement in vote rigging
Count 4: Allegations of judicial bias favouring CCM
All charges were non-bailable, ensuring Lissu would remain in detention throughout the October election period.
12 April 2025 – Party Disqualification:
The Independent National Electoral Commission disqualified Chadema from participating in the 2025 general election, citing the party’s failure to sign the Electoral Code of Conduct. This procedural pretext formalised the party’s exclusion, though Chadema had already declared it would not participate without electoral reforms, making the disqualification a dual reality of strategic boycott and administrative barring.
Legal Obstruction Timeline:
The regime systematically obstructed Lissu’s legal representation. On 18 May 2025, Kenyan lawyer Martha Karua was arrested and deported immediately upon arrival at Julius Nyerere International Airport. In June 2025, democracy advocates Boniface Mwangi (Kenya) and Agather Atuhaire (Uganda) were detained, sexually assaulted, and tortured for attempting to attend Lissu’s court hearing.
By 16 June 2025, prison authorities had blocked all lawyer access, forcing Lissu to represent himself in court. The case experienced multiple adjournments through July and October, with prosecutors citing delays in implementing witness protection procedures.
Detention Conditions:
Initially, Lissu was detained with over 100 convicted death row inmates at Ukonga Central Prison. He later described being moved to solitary confinement in a 4-block, 24-cell compound. Lissu conducted a hunger strike demanding physical court attendance rather than online hearings. His legal team eventually comprised over 200 lawyers, led by Dr Rugemeleza Nshala and international lawyer Robert Amsterdam.
What Happened During Tanzania’s October 2025 Elections?
Electoral Statistics:
Official Results (1 November 2025):
President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared winner with 97-98% of the vote on a reported turnout of 87%. Independent analytical estimates suggest the actual turnout was approximately 35%. Hassan faced 16 minor party candidates who posed no viable challenge to her candidacy.
Opposition Status and Electoral Participation:
For the first time since 1995, Tanzania’s two largest opposition parties were prevented from fielding presidential candidates, though their electoral participation strategies differed significantly.
Chadema’s Position:
Chadema implemented its “No Reforms, No Elections” boycott strategy, refusing to participate in what Chairman Tundu Lissu characterised as a fundamentally illegitimate electoral process. The party was simultaneously formally disqualified by the Independent National Electoral Commission on 12 April 2025, ostensibly for failing to sign the Electoral Code of Conduct. This dual reality—strategic boycott and administrative barring—meant Chadema fielded no candidates at any electoral level.
ACT-Wazalendo’s Position:
Alliance for Change and Transparency took a different approach. Whilst their presidential candidate Luhaga Mpina was barred from running in a reversal of a decision made the previous week, ACT-Wazalendo participated in parliamentary elections on both the Mainland and in Zanzibar. The party’s Secretary General, Ado Shaibu, won a parliamentary seat, demonstrating that some opposition electoral success remained possible at the legislative level despite presidential candidate exclusion.
Analytical Significance:
This differential treatment reveals sophisticated authoritarian strategy rather than blanket opposition suppression. By allowing ACT-Wazalendo parliamentary participation whilst barring their presidential candidate, the regime maintained a veneer of competitive elections sufficient to claim democratic legitimacy. Meanwhile, Chadema’s comprehensive exclusion—combining the party’s principled boycott with administrative disqualification—eliminated the opposition party most capable of mobilising mass protests and international attention.
Comparative Context:
2020 Election: Magufuli 84% on 50.7% turnout, with opposition presidential candidates permitted
2025 Election: Hassan 98% on claimed 87% turnout, with both major opposition presidential candidates barred
Statistical Anomaly: Dramatically higher reported victory margin and turnout despite elimination of credible opposition, exposing the fraudulent nature of official results
How Many Civilians Were Killed in October 2025?
The October 2025 Massacre:
Death Toll:
According to ICC submissions filed by international lawyers and human rights groups on 27 November 2025, approximately 10,000 civilians were killed over three days (29-31 October 2025) following election protests. Cristina Roque, Executive Director of Intelwatch, which submitted the first of four cases to the ICC, stated that between 5,000 to 10,000 people were killed.
Evidence Submitted to ICC:
Morgue documentation showing systematic executions
Hospital records from facilities overwhelmed with corpses
Thousands of videos showing execution-style killings
One morgue alone contained 800 bodies
Medical professionals were threatened with death if they released casualty figures
Operational Characteristics:
Security forces used live ammunition rather than standard crowd control measures. Evidence includes sniper attacks from significant distances, indicating targeted executions rather than crowd dispersal operations. The ICC submission notes that operations were potentially directed by the president’s son, Abdul Halim Hafidh Ameir, who allegedly heads Tanzania’s intelligence services.
29 October 2025 (Election Day):
Protests erupted in Dar es Salaam, Arusha, Mwanza, and Namanga border town. The state response included military deployment alongside police, authorisation of live ammunition, and imposition of a multi-day curfew in Dar es Salaam. A 6-day internet shutdown prevented international monitoring and domestic documentation of the massacre.
Body Disposal Operations:
Chadema official Munishi told NPR that streets were covered with dead bodies, hospitals were overwhelmed with corpses, and police were conducting systematic operations to collect bodies and bury them in mass graves. By 4 November 2025, Chadema’s verified count reached 2,000 deaths, but the party stated the true toll was even higher, with hundreds of unknown bodies disposed of at undisclosed locations.
Journalists Killed:
At least two journalists were killed by security forces during the crackdown. Tanzanian journalists who survived provided graphic testimony of the brutality. Foreign journalist accreditation was systematically denied, with CNN’s Larry Madowo stating Tanzania “does not like independent critical reporting.”
What Role Did the Spy Agency TISS Play in the Repression?
