🔍 Munich Security Conference 2026: Intelligence Brief on the 62nd MSC and Its Global Security Implications
Ujasusi Blog’s Global Affairs Desk | 16 February 2026 | 0150 GMT
The Munich Security Conference (MSC) 2026 is the 62nd edition of the world’s largest independent forum for international security policy, held from 13–15 February 2026 at Hotel Bayerischer Hof and Rosewood Munich. The conference convened over 1,000 participants from 115+ countries, including approximately 60 heads of state and government, amid a period the accompanying Munich Security Report 2026 characterises as an era of “wrecking-ball politics” — the systemic dismantling of the post-1945 rules-based international order.
What Were the Dominant Themes at MSC 2026?
The 62nd MSC was shaped by five interconnected crises: the fracturing of the transatlantic alliance under the second Trump administration, the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and its diplomatic trajectory, European strategic autonomy (including nuclear deterrence), the Iran crisis and mass protests, and the geopolitics of trade and technology. The MSC 2026 agenda reflected these priorities across main-stage sessions, roundtables, and a new dedicated Ukraine House — a first in the conference’s history.
The Munich Security Report 2026, titled Under Destruction and edited by Tobias Bunde and Sophie Eisentraut, set the analytical framework. Its Munich Security Index 2026 found that across all G7 countries surveyed, only a marginal proportion of respondents believed their government’s policies would improve prospects for future generations. The report identified the current US administration as the most prominent actor pursuing destruction over reform of the international order.
How Did Key Leaders Frame the Transatlantic Relationship?
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz opened the conference with a stark assessment: the post-war rules-based order “no longer exists,” and the world has entered an era of great-power politics. He warned Washington directly that “even the United States will not be powerful enough to go it alone” and disclosed that he had begun talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on European nuclear deterrence, while stressing full compliance with NATO’s nuclear-sharing framework and Germany’s legal obligations under the 1990 reunification treaty.
French President Emmanuel Macron closed Friday’s programme by calling on Europe to transform itself into a geopolitical power with independent defence capabilities, deep-strike capacity, and a rearticulated nuclear doctrine. He confirmed a strategic dialogue with Merz and other European leaders on integrating France’s estimated 290 nuclear warheads into a broader European security architecture. Macron also defended Europe’s Digital Services Act against Trump administration criticism, framing social media regulation as essential to protecting democratic integrity.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered Saturday’s keynote, striking a markedly more conciliatory tone than Vice President JD Vance’s confrontational MSC 2025 address. Rubio framed the US-European relationship around shared civilisational heritage and said Washington sought to “revitalise an old friendship” rather than separate from Europe. However, he embedded distinctly Trumpian themes — references to a “climate cult,” “civilisation erasure,” and the justification of US military interventions in Venezuela and Iran. EU High Representative Kaja Kallas called the speech “reassuring,” though European officials privately expressed discomfort with Rubio’s dismissive references to the United Nations and climate commitments.
What Emerged on Russia-Ukraine Diplomacy?
Ukraine’s war dominated the conference. President Volodymyr Zelensky attended in person, met with Chancellor Merz to discuss joint arms production — including the inauguration of Quantum Frontline Industries, a German-Ukrainian drone venture with initial capacity of 10,000 units per year — and addressed the main stage on Saturday.
At MSC 2026, Zelensky offered a conditional proposal: Ukraine would hold democratic elections if the US helped secure a two-month ceasefire with adequate security guarantees. He referenced a 20-point peace plan requiring both American and European engagement, while acknowledging unresolved territorial disputes over parts of the Donetsk region.
The conference exposed a widening gap between the US and European approaches. Rubio skipped a Berlin Format meeting on Ukraine with European counterparts, a decision European diplomats interpreted as signalling Washington’s declining interest in multilateral coordination on the conflict. The MSC 2026 report documented a sharp decline in US military aid to Ukraine since January 2025, with European nations and a “coalition of the willing” comprising over 30 partners now shouldering the primary burden of military and financial support.
The report further noted that intelligence agencies estimate Russia could reconstitute forces for a regional war in the Baltic area within two years of a potential ceasefire — and for a localised conflict against a single neighbour within six months.
What Was the Significance of the Iran Dimension?
Iran emerged as a pivotal issue both inside and outside the conference. The Munich Security Report 2026 noted the Trump administration’s January 2026 withdrawal from 66 international organisations, while the conference unfolded against the backdrop of the US military strikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities in June 2025 — referred to by US officials as Operation Midnight Hammer.
Outside the security perimeter, an estimated 250,000 demonstrators gathered at Munich’s Theresienwiese in what organisers described as Europe’s largest-ever rally against the Iranian regime. The protest, called by exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi, followed a deadly crackdown on nationwide protests that began in late December 2025, with conservative estimates suggesting between 40,000 and 50,000 killed. The US-based Iranian rights organisation HRANA had confirmed over 7,000 deaths with an additional 11,730 cases under review.
Pahlavi, who was invited to the MSC after Iranian officials’ invitations were withdrawn, urged the international community to support regime change. US Senator Lindsey Graham, who spoke at both the conference and the rally, openly advocated for toppling the Islamic Republic. China’s Wang Yi called for prudence, while also addressing Ukraine, Venezuela, and Japan’s recent comments on Taiwan.
What Are the Intelligence Implications for Africa and the Global South?
The MSC 2026 report’s chapter on development and humanitarian assistance — subtitled “Death by a Thousand Cuts?” — carries direct implications for African security dynamics. The Trump administration’s rejection of the UN Sustainable Development Goals, combined with drastic budget cuts to USAID and multilateral institutions, has created what the report terms an “existential crisis” in the development and humanitarian systems.
For African states, the key strategic takeaway is the acceleration of a power vacuum. China is expanding its political and strategic influence within UN agencies to fill gaps left by Washington’s withdrawal. Traditional donors are narrowing their national interests, and Gulf states are unlikely to fully compensate for reduced Western assistance. This reconfiguration of global aid architecture has immediate consequences for counterterrorism financing, peacekeeping operations, and governance programmes across the Sahel, Horn of Africa, and Great Lakes region.
The broader shift from multilateral rules-based engagement to transactional deal-making — what the MSC report characterises as an emerging “deals-based order” — weakens the institutional frameworks that many African governments rely upon for conflict mediation and development finance.
What Should Analysts Watch Next?
The MSC 2026 established several trajectories that will shape the security environment in the months ahead. The Franco-German nuclear deterrence dialogue, if it progresses, would represent the most significant shift in European defence posture since the Cold War. The Ukraine peace negotiations — with the next rounds scheduled for 17–18 February in Geneva — will test whether Washington’s bilateral approach with Moscow can coexist with European demands for inclusion. Iran’s internal crisis, the regime’s response to protests, and the status of US-Iran nuclear talks (the next round was planned for Geneva on Tuesday 18 February) remain volatile flashpoints. And the continued erosion of multilateral institutions will reshape the operational landscape for intelligence services, security organisations, and development actors worldwide.
