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Mozambique might be facing an escalation of the unrest that has rocked the southern African country since the election of new President Daniel Chapo in October.

This Thursday (November 8), demonstrations organized by the opposition in the streets of the capital Maputo are set to culminate in a big rally. Observers fear increasing violence and riots.

Mozambican analyst Fredson Guilengue, who works for the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation in neighboring South Africa, said that due to the repressive nature of the country’s regime for many years, the use of violence seems to have become the only way to effectively engage with those in power.

"The regime is trying to use force to stop people from demonstrations. So far this has not worked, people are still on the street," he told DW. "I believe, the government will increase the violence just to stop the demonstrations."

Government ignoring protests

Guilengue accuses the government of barely engaging with or even acknowledging the protestors, refusing to discuss the kind of change that many Mozambicans want to see. This could be a recipe for disaster since Mozambique is known for its disputed elections.

Since the first multi-party elections were held in 1994, each election result in Mozambique has been highly contested — not only by opposition figures but also by independent analysts.

Not a single result in 30 years has been seen as credible, Guilengue highlights, adding that recurring allegations of election fraud and the ruling party's continuing control over the elections as well as the judiciary only compound the growing lack of credibility with which the ruling party FRELIMO is being treated.

Time and again, these kinds of developments have led to post-election instability across the country, including repeated armed conflicts.

This year, however, the sense of discontent among Mozambicans is palpable everywhere in Maputo and beyond. Heavy protests broke out right after the election results were published on October 24, with the opposition disputing the results and accusing FRELIMO of electoral fraud during the October 9 elections.

Supporters of opposition leader Venancio Mondlane filed a complaint with the Constitutional Court and took to the streets in protest immediately after the announcement of the official results by the country's electoral commission.

Although 50-year-old Mondlane ran as an independent candidate, he enjoyed the support of Podemos — the Optimist Party for the Development of Mozambique, which officially won over 20% of the votes.

FRELIMO candidate Daniel Chapo won the presidential election with over 70% of the vote, according to the official tally. Meanwhile, the candidate for Mozambique's traditional main opposition party Renamo officially finished a distant third place, with less than 6% of the vote.

Police fire tear gas at protest in Mozambique's capital

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Mozambique's repressive regime accused of killing opponents

While FRELIMO is yet to address the protests in a constructive manner, police have responded to the rallies, using tear gas and even opening gunfire to disperse protesters. Mondlane's lawyer and spokesman were shot dead by unknown assailants, adding to more anger and violence on the part of the demonstrators.

Shortly after the killings, Mondlane disappeared from the public eye, accusing the police of issuing threats against him. According to media reports, the police believe that Mondlane is in hiding in South Africa.

Guilengue is worried about Mondlane's well-being and safety: "We have seen independent journalists, public commentators, scholars, activists and many other people being assassinated or being killed in Mozambique just (for) expressing their opinion about political and socio-economic issues in the country that they do not agree with," he told DW.

However, not everyone believes that Mondlane is indeed in real danger; Elisio Macamo, a Mozambican sociologist at the University of Basel in Switzerland, says that leaving the country was a wise decision for the opposition figure.

"I do not think that — taking the political rationality into account — they would have an interest in having him killed," he told DW, stressing at the same time that the demonstrations are "a game changer."

"Nothing like this has happened in Mozambique before," Macamo said about the scale of the protests. "Young people have lost their fear and they have been able to change the narrative, the focus now is on fraud. (But) I do not think that FRELIMO's victory can be accounted for solely by fraud."

Disinformation and digital gatekeeping

In fact, an important factor for the election outcome is also the extent to which the independent candidate Mondlane divided the opposition vote — and FRELIMO might even be implied in that dynamic as well.

"There is fake news going around," Macamo explains, highlighting that while not all manipulation attempts taking place online can be attributed to the government, some are indeed directly "connected to the FRELIMO party" and that these are strategically designed to "counteract the narratives that are coming from the opposition."

Meanwhile, another method used by the government to continue its influence and impact following the elections is to place severe restrictions on internet access, Macamo adds.

"Obviously internet companies have received instructions from the police and the judicial authorities probably to cancel or restrict internet services," he believes, judging by his own experience in recent weeks of contacting people in Mozambique digitally.

And he doesn't think things will change soon: "The government will continue to be repressive, that is for sure. And I fear that things will get even more out of hand. I am just worried about the country right now."

Mondlane meanwhile has been imploring his supporters as best he can on social media to keep demonstrating against the official poll results into next week.

In a live speech on his Facebook page last Friday (November 1), Mondlane assured that all the conditions were in place for him to return to Maputo and join the protests, telling supporters to not give up the fight.

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Ujasusi | Intelligence & Security Analysis

Mozambique: government faces further protests…