In recent weeks, TRAC has been following Wagner's convoy attempting to make its way to Kidal as both Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Coordination for Azawad Movements (CAM) have been stopping the Wagner convoy every step along the way and to this date, Wagner has still not actually arrived in Kidal. This is especially important considering that MINUSMA has evacuated from Kidal, as such has been equally targeted by JNIM militants as they continue their exodus from Mali.
On 31 October 2023, JNIM militants targeted MINUSMA forces with an IED on their way out of Kidal, reportedly destroying the vehicle in its totality and killing all occupants on board. Two days later, on 02 November 2023, JNIM militants initiated a second attack, again detonating an IED on MINUSMA forces who were on their way out of Kidal and again destroying the vehicle and killing all those on board.
The second attack on MINUSMA forces leaving Kidal clearly shows JNIM's intent on expressing their total domination of the region to not only MINSUMA, but also to FAMA/Wagner Forces as well.
Similar to the JNIM attacks on the convoys of FAMA/Wagner forces that attempted to reach Kidal to stop Coordination for Azawad Movements (CAM)/JNIM militants, it is highly unlikely that MINUSMA forces will make it out of this situation alive without JNIM agreeing to some sort of expressed safe passage, which, given the bloody history between these groups, in extremely doubtful.
JNIM will make MINUSMA forces evacuation a living hell as shown by the repeated attacks on the way out, by continuing this pattern at an alarming rate for the rest of 2023, as MINUSMAs deadline of the 31st of December is fast arriving.
While the security coalition of FAMA and Wagner Forces may have high hopes of weakening JNIM, their attempts on 07 November using drones to strike the JNIM/CAM held town of Kidal fell remarkably short. It was reported that the drone strike missed any militants, but killed 14 civilians, including children.
This showdown between the two large forces has been long anticipated, as tensions have been palpable between the two groups, which will undoubtedly be a massive victory for either group.
FAMA/Wagner forces are likely to rely on any type of air support to soften up the JNIM/CAM forces before a physical show down. It is still unknown if this will be effective by any means, considering FAMA and Wagner’s disregard for civilians and penchants for missing JNIM encampments, again reference the 07 November incident. This is further complicated as JNIM/CAM forces have had significant success at aircraft downing capabilities over the past two months.
Given that JNIM/CAM have had weeks to fortify their position, coupled with having the knowledge of FAMA and Wagner’s intentions on sieging the town for over a month, it is more than likely that JNIM/CAM will be able to repel any attacks from the security coalition. In the unlikely event that Kidal would actually fall into the hands of Wagner and FAMA, it would be incredibly difficult for them to maintain control over area, as Kidal has been a hub for the Azawad movement for a decade, meaning that, local support in the area has deep roots.