On April 22, al Qaeda–linked Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) launched its first complex attack involving SVBIEDs in central Mali since April 2022. The attack used at least three SVBIEDs and dozens of fighters against the main Wagner Group-Malian army and Wagner Group base in the Mopti region while attempting to fix nearby UN forces during the attack.
JNIM claimed to kill “tens” of Wagner and Malian forces, while Malian officials said the fighting killed 10 civilians and 28 JNIM fighters and injured 61 civilians. JNIM carried out another high-publicity attack several days earlier when it killed the Malian junta leader’s chief of staff in southern Mali on April 18.
These attacks are emblematic of JNIM’s expansion across the country. IS’s regional affiliate also encircled Mali’s easternmost district capital in mid-April.
JNIM likely established new support zones in central Mali since the fourth quarter of 2022 that it is using to sustain attacks on security forces in central Mali and expand attacks into southern Segou. JNIM has subdued the civilian populations in these new support zones in the center of the Segou region and along the Segou and Mopti regions’ border with Burkina Faso.
JNIM predominantly targeted civilians in these areas in the fourth quarter of 2022 but has ceased these attacks in 2023.
Security forces were not active in these areas in the fourth quarter of 2022 or in 2023. The downturn in attacks on civilians despite the lack of security-force presence indicates that JNIM has coerced the population. JNIM has simultaneously increased the rate of its improvised explosive device (IED) attacks on roads surrounding these support zones in 2023 and expanded attacks into adjacent areas of southern Segou region.
The group requires nearby support zones to sustain these attacks, which further supports the assessment that it has established new support zones in Segou and Mopti.
Counterterrorism efforts in 2023 have not degraded JNIM’s support zones or capabilities across much of central Mali, despite the Malian army and Wagner Group increasing the rate and scope of their operations in central Mali from December 2022 to March 2023.
The Malian army claimed an average of 39 operations per month over this time frame, nearly tripling its baseline rate since the withdrawal of French forces in August 2022. Security forces notably increased their activity in the Niger and Niono River Valleys and between Bandiagara and Bankass districts during this spike in operations.
JNIM has responded to the increased counterterrorism activity by increasing IED attacks on security forces since February, conducting these attacks over twice as often as they had since October 2022. These attacks require nearby support zones to host bomb makers.
The Malian army and Wagner may have had some success degrading JNIM support zones between the Bandiagara and Bankass districts since January 2023. JNIM attacks have occurred farther away from Bandiagara and Bankass towns since January 2023.
The group has only conducted one attack in the immediate vicinity of Bandiagara in 2023 and no attacks near Bankass after attacking civilians outside of Bandiagara four times in fourth quarter of 2023 and once near Bankass in that same time period. This trend could indicate counterterrorism operations have degraded the support zones in this area that JNIM uses to orchestrate attacks near the towns.
However, JNIM has continued targeting security forces with IEDs in this area and orchestrated the April 22 complex SVBIED attack less than 50 miles from this zone. JNIM requires nearby support zones to manufacture the VBIEDs and IEDs used in these attacks and stage its fighters, indicating JNIM still has functioning support zones nearby.