[FREE ACCESS] Intelligence Brief | Malawi Election 2025: Ex-President Mutharika Secures Major Lead Over Incumbent Chakwera
Ujasusi Blog’s Southern Africa Monitoring Team | 22 September 2025 | 2310
Malawi’s 2025 presidential election has taken a dramatic turn as provisional results show former President Peter Mutharika commanding a decisive lead over current head of state Lazarus Chakwera. With nearly two-thirds of results tallied, Mutharika has captured 66% of the vote, placing him on course for an outright victory and a potential return to power after five years out of office.
This development marks one of the most significant political shifts in Malawi since Chakwera’s historic 2020 victory that followed the annulment of disputed results from 2019. The implications stretch beyond domestic politics into regional stability, governance, and the socio-economic outlook for Southern Africa.
Key Election Results So Far
Peter Mutharika (Democratic Progressive Party – DPP): ~66% of votes counted in 24 out of 36 councils
Lazarus Chakwera (Malawi Congress Party – MCP): ~24%
Threshold for outright win: More than 50% of valid votes
Current status: Results pending from final councils; official announcement due September 24
If the trend holds, Mutharika will surpass the required threshold and avoid a runoff, cementing his comeback bid at the age of 85.
Political Background
Peter Mutharika, 85, served as Malawi’s president from 2014 to 2020. A former law professor with international credentials, Mutharika was initially praised for stabilising inflation and driving infrastructure development, particularly in roads and energy projects. However, his tenure was also marred by allegations of corruption, claims of nepotism, and democratic backsliding.
In 2019, Mutharika’s re-election was annulled by Malawi’s Constitutional Court due to widespread irregularities, including tampered vote tallies and the infamous use of correction fluid on official results sheets. This historical ruling set a new precedent in Africa, underscoring the growing power of judicial oversight in electoral disputes.
Lazarus Chakwera, 70, a former pastor and theologian, came to power in the 2020 re-run election, pledging sweeping anti-corruption reforms and socio-economic renewal. Initially hailed as a reformist, his administration struggled to meet expectations amidst worsening economic conditions and a series of climate-related natural disasters.
Factors Driving Mutharika’s Surge
Several dynamics explain why Mutharika appears poised for a comeback:
Economic Crisis: Malawi has endured more than three years of inflation above 20%, ongoing food shortages, and currency devaluation. Public frustration has grown over Chakwera’s inability to stabilise the economy.
Climate Disasters: A combination of regional drought and a devastating cyclone linked to climate change decimated crops and worsened food insecurity. Many blame Chakwera’s leadership for inadequate disaster preparedness and recovery policies.
Governance Perception: While Chakwera promised to tackle corruption, critics argue his anti-graft crusade has been selective and slow, denting his reformist image.
Nostalgia Factor: Despite controversy, Mutharika’s era is remembered by many for lower inflation rates and visible infrastructure improvements, giving him credibility in handling economic challenges.
Risk Factors and Stability Concerns
If Mutharika secures an outright victory, several intelligence and stability concerns emerge:
Electoral Commission Legitimacy: Given the history of annulments and electoral manipulation, the integrity of the Malawi Electoral Commission (MEC) is under intense scrutiny. Any perceived irregularities could trigger unrest, particularly in opposition strongholds.
Age and Succession Questions: At 85, Mutharika would become one of Africa’s oldest heads of state. Questions over his health and succession planning could create political uncertainty.
DPP’s Governance Style: Mutharika’s earlier rule faced accusations of cronyism and authoritarian tendencies. His return could lead to tension between civil society, opposition groups, and international donors.
Opposition Response: Chakwera’s supporters, especially in central and northern regions, could mount legal and street-level challenges if the final tally confirms defeat.
Regional Impact
Malawi, though landlocked and economically fragile, plays a critical role in Southern Africa’s stability. A peaceful or disputed outcome will carry broader implications:
Southern African Development Community (SADC): The bloc will watch the outcome closely as Malawi has previously been a test case for regional electoral monitoring mechanisms.
International Donors: Malawi depends heavily on international aid and loans. A contested election may prompt Western donors to delay or condition assistance, further worsening the economic crisis.
Regional Food Security: Malawi’s agricultural output directly affects neighbouring Mozambique, Zambia, and Tanzania. A stable administration is essential for coordinating food security and disaster management policies.
Intelligence Outlook
If trends persist, Peter Mutharika is highly likely to secure a first-round victory. Intelligence assessments suggest three primary scenarios:
High Probability – Peaceful but Contentious Transfer (60%): Despite opposition protests and disputes, the MEC certifies results in favour of Mutharika, and regional mediators contain tensions.
Medium Probability – Extended Dispute (30%): Legal challenges, demonstrations, or partial recounts delay final confirmation of results, risking short-term instability.
Low Probability – Runoff Election (10%): Unexpected shifts in late results reduce Mutharika’s margin below 50%, triggering a second round of voting.
Strategic Implications
For policymakers, diplomats, and investors, Malawi’s 2025 election outcome carries several implications:
Political Risk: The likelihood of protests, judicial disputes, and opposition-led resistance will remain high in the short term, particularly if transparency concerns persist in the MEC’s tally process.
Economic Forecast: Should Mutharika return to power, expect an agenda prioritising currency stabilisation, inflation control, and infrastructure expansion. However, past experiences suggest elite patronage networks may again dominate policymaking.
Security Dynamics: Localised clashes between rival political party supporters are probable in Lilongwe, Blantyre, and Kasungu, with potential for escalation if authorities mishandle crowd control.
Foreign Policy: Mutharika has historically aligned closer with China, which invested heavily in Malawian infrastructure, while Chakwera leaned more on Western donors. A diplomatic reorientation is possible if Mutharika regains power.
Malawi’s electoral trajectory in 2025 is shaping up as a pivotal moment for the country’s democracy. With Peter Mutharika in a commanding lead at 66%, the stage is set for a likely return to power of the controversial but experienced former president. Incumbent Lazarus Chakwera, despite early reformist promises, is on the brink of a significant electoral defeat amid economic hardship and disillusionment.
While the Malawi Electoral Commission reviews results with heightened caution—mindful of the 2019 annulment—political tensions are expected to rise before the official declaration. For regional stakeholders and international partners, monitoring Malawi’s unfolding transition remains crucial to understanding the future political and security dynamics of Southern Africa.
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