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Intelligence Insights | The Fate of M23 After the Washington Peace Accord: Prospects for Eastern Congo

Intelligence Insights | The Fate of M23 After the Washington Peace Accord: Prospects for Eastern Congo

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Evarist Chahali
Jul 04, 2025
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Intelligence Insights | The Fate of M23 After the Washington Peace Accord: Prospects for Eastern Congo
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Ujasusi Blog’s Great Lakes Region Monitoring Team | 🗓️04 July 2025 | 🕜 0830 BST


On 27 June 2025, the United States brokered a landmark peace agreement between the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda. Signed in Washington and championed by the Trump administration, the accord aims to halt the latest escalation in North Kivu, where the Rwanda-backed M23 rebel group has controlled swathes of territory since 2022. While the deal commits Kigali to withdraw its troops and Kinshasa to reform its security sector, it leaves the future of M23—and of dozens of other militias—unresolved. This analysis explores three interlocking questions:

  1. Will M23 dismantle or realign?

  2. How does former President Joseph Kabila shape rebel strategy?

  3. Is a durable peace conceivable amid corruption, a weak military–intelligence apparatus, and the persistent threat of the Allied Democratic Forces (ADF)?

1 | Washington Accord at a Glance

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