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Intelligence Analysis | Kingmaker or Liability? The Unfolding Paradox of Tanzania's ex-President Jakaya Kikwete in 2025 Power Equation

Intelligence Analysis | Kingmaker or Liability? The Unfolding Paradox of Tanzania's ex-President Jakaya Kikwete in 2025 Power Equation

Is the Retired President an Asset or Liability to the Incumbent Samia Suluhu?

Evarist Chahali's avatar
Evarist Chahali
Jul 21, 2025
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Intelligence Analysis | Kingmaker or Liability? The Unfolding Paradox of Tanzania's ex-President Jakaya Kikwete in 2025 Power Equation
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Samia Suluhu (L) and Jakaya Kikwete (R) [Photo/File}

Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 🗓️ 21 July 2025 |🕜 0200 BST


Executive Summary

Former President Jakaya Mrisho Kikwete continues to cast a long shadow over Tanzania’s political landscape more than a decade after his official exit from State House. His enduring visibility, strategic networking, and ongoing influence—particularly over President Samia Suluhu Hassan’s government—have become subjects of intense scrutiny, speculation, and growing concern among political analysts, civil society, and citizens alike. While he remains a respected statesman abroad, Kikwete’s domestic legacy is polarised, with critics highlighting his tenure as one of the most corruption-ridden eras in Tanzanian post-independence history. Allegations that he played a pivotal role in sidelining political rivals such as Edward Lowassa, while simultaneously engineering Samia’s rise, suggest a deliberate long-term strategy to control succession dynamics in Tanzania.

This intelligence insight dissects Kikwete’s enduring grip on Tanzania’s post-Magufuli politics. It explores the motives and implications behind his current political posture, the silent but strategic manner in which he is alleged to have influenced presidential nominations, and the growing concern that his actions are designed not only to protect his legacy but to extend his influence indefinitely. The analysis also delves into the broader implications of his conduct on national governance, the balance of power within the ruling CCM party, and Tanzania’s democratic trajectory. Finally, it presents risk scenarios and potential outcomes for Kikwete, Samia, and the nation at large.

1. Historical Context: From Reformist Image to Contested Legacy

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