Intelligence Report: Prospects for the Expansion of Islamist Terrorism Across Africa
INTELLIGENCE REPORT
Title: Prospects for the Expansion of Islamist Terrorism Across Africa
Date: 16 April 2025
Analyst: Evarist Chahali
Classification: Confidential
Distribution: For Internal Use – Policy, Defence, and Strategic Planning Units
1. Executive Summary
Islamist terrorism continues to pose a significant and expanding threat across Africa. While concentrated in the Sahel, West Africa, the Horn of Africa, northern Mozambique, and parts of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), multiple indicators suggest a high potential for terrorist expansion into other regions. Core drivers include endemic corruption, poverty, poor governance, weak border security, and the politicisation of counter-terrorism infrastructure.
This report evaluates current hotspots, underlying enablers, at-risk states, and plausible scenarios for the broader spread of jihadist influence. It concludes that without urgent structural reforms, improved regional coordination, and socio-economic interventions, terrorism may become a pan-African challenge with significant implications for state stability, regional integration, and global security.