š§ Intelligence Insights | Islamic Stateās Africa Front: Propaganda, Operations, and Strategic Repositioning in 2025
š„Ujasusi Blogās Terrorism Monitor Desk |š 25 June 2025 |š2150 BST
š Executive Summary
As the Islamic State (IS) nears the eleventh anniversary of its self-declared caliphate on 29 June, new data and analysis underscore a profound transformation in the groupās operational geography and propaganda strategy. While IS has declined across its original strongholdsāSyria, Iraq, and Afghanistanāsub-Saharan Africa has emerged as the new nucleus of its global jihadist brand. This shift highlights a broader adaptation of jihadist strategy, wherein IS increasingly exploits ungoverned spaces and weak institutions in fragile African states to extend its operational reach and propaganda narrative.
According to data compiled up to 20 June 2025, Africa now accounts for nearly 90% of ISās global attack claims, a substantial increase from approximately 70% in the previous year. African affiliates not only dominate the groupās violent operations but also sustain its information warfare apparatus, with 24 out of 25 issues of ISās weekly Al-Naba this year featuring Africa on the front page. These developments show that Africa has become the primary battleground not only for kinetic operations but also for ideological warfare.
This intelligence insight offers a comprehensive review of Islamic State activities and messaging in Africa from January 2024 to June 2025, with emphasis on ISWAP (Nigeria & Lake Chad), ISCAP (DRC, Mozambique & Somalia), and IS Sahel. It identifies key trends in operational tempo, propaganda priorities, and emerging battlefield dynamics, while also reflecting on the implications of ISās strategic repositioning on African and global security. Moreover, it provides forward-looking insights that should inform both regional counterterrorism strategies and global policy adjustments about transnational jihadism.