Intelligence Brief: Kabila Declares 2028 Presidential Bid Amid Legal Challenges
Ujasusi Blog’s Great Lakes Region Monitoring | 16 September 2025 | 2335 BST
Former Democratic Republic of Congo President Joseph Kabila has officially announced his return to active politics, fundamentally reshaping the country's political trajectory toward the 2028 presidential elections. This development carries significant implications for regional stability, mineral resource governance, and democratic consolidation in Central Africa's most strategically important nation.
Kabila's declaration comes amid serious legal jeopardy—facing treason charges for alleged M23 rebellion support—while positioning himself as the solution to governance failures under President Félix Tshisekedi. His political vehicle, the Common Front for Congo (FCC), retains substantial parliamentary influence, suggesting his comeback represents more than symbolic political theatre.
Political Context and Motivations
Kabila's Legacy (2001-2019)
Joseph Kabila's 18-year presidency was marked by relative stability compared to current conditions, Chinese investment expansion, and mixed democratic credentials. His tenure averaged 6.2% GDP growth but faced increasing electoral legitimacy questions, particularly in 2011 and 2018 contests.
Current Governance Challenges Under Tshisekedi
President Tshisekedi's administration faces multiple crises that Kabila seeks to exploit:
Security Deterioration: M23 rebellion controls significant North Kivu territory since 2022, with over 6.9 million internally displaced persons—the highest globally. MONUSCO peacekeeping withdrawal creates an additional security vacuum.
Economic Pressures: Inflation exceeding 15%, currency depreciation, and youth unemployment at 65% create fertile ground for political opposition.
Governance Issues: Persistent corruption, limited decentralisation progress, and international donor fatigue over reform pace undermine the administration's credibility.
Legal Dimension Analysis
The treason charges against Kabila represent either genuine accountability or political persecution, with profound institutional implications.
Alleged Evidence: Financial transfers to M23-controlled areas, political coordination with rebellion leadership, and intelligence sharing compromising government operations.
Strategic Timing: Charges filed three years before elections suggest deliberate political calculation, potentially backfiring by generating sympathy among Kabila's base.
Constitutional Implications: Former president prosecutions remain untested, creating a potential crisis if the leading candidate faces a criminal conviction. Congolese judicial independence questioned by international observers.
Electoral Mathematics and Coalition Dynamics
2028 Electoral Landscape
With Tshisekedi constitutionally barred from a third term, the field remains open:
Leading Candidates:
Joseph Kabila (FCC): Experience, name recognition, eastern base
Moïse Katumbi (Ensemble): Business background, Katanga stronghold
Martin Fayulu (Lamuka): Persistent opposition, urban appeal
Vital Kamerhe (UNC): Parliamentary experience, eastern connections