Intelligence Brief: Escalating Jihadist Threats Across Sub-Saharan Africa, 2025
Ujasusi Blog’s Terrorism Monitor Desk | 04 September 2025 | 0135 BST
Executive Summary 📊
Violent Islamist extremism has reached historic highs across sub-Saharan Africa. The Sahel alone now accounts for just over half of all terrorism fatalities worldwide—a decisive geographic swing from the Middle East and South Asia in the previous decade. Islamic State– and al-Qaeda-aligned franchises have:
Accelerated operational tempo (e.g., ISWAP’s 215 attacks, 734 casualties in Nigeria in H1 2025).
Penetrated new littoral and inland states (Benin, Togo, Ghana, southern Borno, northern Cameroon).
Increased lethality and sophistication, deploying unmanned aerial systems (UAS), precision IEDs and deliberate “burn‑the‑camps” scorched‑earth tactics.
Exploited governance vacuums created by coups, foreign‑force withdrawals and great‑power rivalry, entrenching shadow governance through taxation and daʿwah campaigns.
Absent decisive, coordinated international engagement, the next 12 months will likely see:
