Intelligence Assessment: Strategic Implications of Gen. Muhoozi’s Opposition to Kabila and Support for Tshisekedi | Uganda, DRC
Intelligence Analyst: Evarist Chahali
Intelligence Cut-off Date: 27 April 2025 at 0215 BST
Executive Summary
General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s recent statement opposing Joseph Kabila’s potential return to the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) presidency and expressing implicit support for incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi reflects significant strategic calculations. Uganda's emerging regional policy under Muhoozi increasingly prioritises securing eastern DRC, maintaining political stability favourable to Ugandan interests, and counterbalancing competing regional influences.
Muhoozi's anti-Kabila stance is driven by historical animosity, national security concerns, regional power ambitions, and a preference for a cooperative leadership in Kinshasa. However, the public nature of his declaration risks escalating tensions within the DRC and could provoke regional and international diplomatic challenges for Uganda.