Intelligence Analysis: Evaluating the Potential Impact of the Dar es Salaam DRC Summit Amid Rising Atrocities in Goma

---

Executive Summary

The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) continues to grapple with escalating violence in its eastern provinces, primarily driven by the resurgence of the March 23 Movement (M23) rebel group. As the Dar es Salaam summit, organized under the East African Community (EAC), approaches, hopes for diplomatic progress are tempered by a series of harrowing developments. Most notably, the discovery of over 3,000 bodies in Goma, alongside reports of hundreds of women raped and burned to death, has sent shockwaves through the international community. These atrocities, attributed largely to M23 activities, complicate prospects for a truce and deepen the rift between the DRC and Rwanda, which faces renewed accusations of supporting the rebels.

This report assesses the potential outcomes of the Dar es Salaam summit in light of these developments, analyzing the motivations of key actors, the evolving security landscape, and the likelihood of de-escalation. It concludes that the scale of atrocities in Goma may significantly undermine diplomatic efforts, making reconciliation between DRC and Rwanda increasingly elusive. Without robust international intervention, accountability mechanisms, and cohesive regional cooperation, the summit may fail to produce tangible results, leaving the region on the brink of further destabilization.