Intelligence Analysis: Chadema’s ‘No Reform No Election’ Agenda and Tanzania’s Political Future
Analyst: Evarist Chahali
Intelligence Cut-off Date: March 4, 2025
Executive Summary
This intelligence analysis examines Chadema’s No Reform No Election agenda, assessing its feasibility, risks, and potential outcomes within Tanzania’s current political landscape. It evaluates the party’s ability to mobilize mass public support despite historical challenges, the covert but significant role of the Tanzania Intelligence and Security Service (TISS) in preserving the ruling party’s dominance, and internal divisions that could undermine Chadema’s stance. The analysis also explores how the ruling CCM party may exploit these weaknesses through repression, co-optation, or propaganda, while considering possible future scenarios ranging from an outright election boycott to superficial reforms that allow limited participation. This assessment provides a strategic outlook on the challenges and opportunities facing Chadema and the broader opposition as they push for electoral reforms ahead of the 2025 general elections.