Intelligence Briefing | The ICC as a Battlefield: East Africa’s Authoritarian Convergence and the Looming International Reckoning
Ujasusi Blog’s East Africa Monitoring Team | 19 June 2025 | 0130 BST
Executive Summary
A strategic move by Kenya’s United Opposition to refer President William Ruto to the International Criminal Court (ICC) signals more than just a legal offensive. It marks a potential pivot in East Africa’s increasingly synchronised authoritarian tactics. With systemic repression intensifying in Tanzania under President Samia Suluhu Hassan and in Uganda under President Yoweri Museveni, the ICC's relevance as a deterrent or arbiter of justice is again being tested. This briefing evaluates the regional alignment of authoritarian practices, identifies precedents and gaps in ICC involvement, and explores possible implications for Tanzania and Uganda—two countries now tethered to Kenya in a web of political suppression and cross-border complicity.