An important lesson in all intelligence is to be prepared to think in opposites. Rather than assuming that Hamas would avoid attacking Israel in this way because of the strength of the Israeli response it should have also thought that Hamas might attack precisely to secure a strong response.
In securing that response, Hamas could reasonably predict that Israel’s negotiations with Saudi Arabia would end, and that second and third fronts would open via Syria and Lebanon placing Israel under significant pressure.
Historical parallels
A major intelligence failure in the run-up to 9/11 was in not stitching the intelligence together. But it was also in not seeing that individuals taking flying lessons that did not include a takeoff or landing might suggest a suicide attack: it was beyond the imagination of analysts.
This has its analogy in Hamas’s attack on Israel, where components of the attack like hang-glider mounted attacks, and bulldozers being used to destroy the border fence and guard posts, were not fully contemplated by Israeli officials.
Similarly, the intelligence failure in the 2005 attacks on London was an over-reliance on a thought that became accepted as fact within British intelligence, that Islamist terrorists were only interested in attacking targets abroad. Consequently, the perpetrators of 7/7 were not disrupted in time.
The lesson for all intelligence agencies is to keep challenging their assumptions and to assess what the multiple and plausible alternatives are.
Intelligence failures like those of 9/11 and the July 2005 attacks in London are often because of new terrorist tactics that analysts have failed to imagine could be possible.
Ultimately, intelligence is about avoiding surprises. But it is also about humans. And humans are unpredictable. There will never be perfect intelligence, only “best truths”.
All any intelligence agency can do is try to eliminate glaring errors. Only time will tell if the Israeli agencies had looked the wrong way, were distracted, or were simply outmatched by an enemy that was helped by a capable outsider and had chosen an unfortunately opportune moment to strike.
But the lessons for national security advisers everywhere are to maintain a system where all assessments are challenged, where opposites are explored and to never rule out what has never happened before.