[FREE ACCESS] Ethiopia–Eritrea War Looms as TPLF Alliance Targets Amhara Region

Oct 10, 2025

Ujasusi Blog’s Horn of Africa Monitoring Team | 10 October 2025 | 0510 BST

Key Takeaways

Ethiopia’s foreign minister formally accuses Eritrea of mobilising troops and colluding with the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) to “wage war against Ethiopia.”
UN Secretary-General receives 2 Oct 2025 letter detailing “financing, mobilising & directing” of Amhara militias by Asmara–Tigray axis.
Eritrea’s information minister slams claims as “provocative sabre-rattling”; TPLF brands allegations “unfounded pretext for fresh war.”
Red Sea access dispute reignites Horn of Africa instability; Ethiopia insists on peaceful negotiation, but the region fears a repeat of the 1998–2000 border war.
GERD dam row with Egypt & Sudan adds multi-front pressure on Addis Ababa.

Document: Letter dated 2 Oct 2025 from Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos to UN Secretary-General António Guterres.
Core Claim: “Collusion” between Eritrea and TPLF now “evident”; joint goal to destabilise Ethiopia’s Amhara region and trigger armed conflict.
Alleged Activities:
– Eritrean arms shipments to TPLF remnants via the northern Afar corridor.
– Joint command centres inside Eritrean border towns (Tserona, Adi Quala).
– Funding channels for Fano militias to stretch the Ethiopian federal forces.

Eritrea (Thu 9 Oct): Information Minister Yemane Ghebremeskel tweets “deceitful charade” and “fabricated casus belli.”
TPLF (Thu 9 Oct): Statement rejects “baseless allegations,” warns Abiy administration is “manufacturing conflict” to divert from domestic unrest.

Commercial SAR imagery (30 Sep – 6 Oct):
– Eritrean mechanised brigades observed moving south toward the Tsorona front (38 km from Zalambessa border crossing).
– Tigray Defence Forces (TDF) remnants reportedly regrouping in Edaga Arbi & Adigrat highlands.
Ethiopian ENDF 4th Division redeployed from Oromia to Weldiya sector; drone surveillance sorties up 65 % over the Eritrean border (Source: Janes Defence).

Abiy Ahmed (Mar 2025): “No intention of force” for sea outlet, but Ethiopian negotiators seek port lease in Assab or Zeila (Somaliland).
Eritrea (Isaias Afwerki): “Territorial integrity non-negotiable”; Assab off-limits to Ethiopian logistics.
Risk: Any Ethiopian military escalation could trigger Egyptian & Sudanese intervention under the GERD security doctrine.

Coffee export route disruption: Djibouti corridor handles 95 % of Ethiopian trade; Eritrean sabotage could raise freight costs 30 %.
1.2 M internally displaced in Amhara & Tigray; UN OCHA warns new conflict could push 3.5 M into IPC 4 famine levels.
Global commodity markets: Horn of Africa conflict premium already added $2.40 / barrel to Brent crude (Argus Media).

African Union (9 Oct): calls for “immediate de-escalation”; AU fact-finding mission expected within 72 hrs.
U.S. State Dept: “Deeply concerned”; Visa restrictions on unnamed Eritrean officials under review.
China & UAE: Both states urge “bilateral dialogue”; UAE operates Assab naval facility—direct strategic stake.
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