The deportations of Russian intelligence officers and the denial of visas at the initiative of the protection police weakened Russian intelligence in Finland. Personal intelligence under diplomatic cover has traditionally been the main method of Russian intelligence abroad.
Russia - but also China and some other countries - use intelligence to collect information that they use to their advantage and against Finland. The Protection Police (Supo) succeeded in significantly weakening Russian intelligence in Finland during 2022.
"In the last year, the size of the Russian intelligence station was reduced by about half of what it was before. The main reason for the decrease in the number of intelligence officers was the deportations of intelligence officers and the denial of visas at the initiative of the National Security Police, Antti Pelttari , head of the National Security Police , said at the launch of Supo's yearbook on March 30.
The decrease in the number of intelligence officers and the restrictions related to travel across the Russian border have significantly weakened the operational possibilities of Russian personal intelligence in Finland. Intelligence under diplomatic cover has been the main method of Russian intelligence abroad.
"Russia still strives to place its intelligence officers under diplomatic cover, but over time it must try to compensate for the gap created in personal intelligence, for example by introducing more other covers abroad as well. However, building contacts in personnel intelligence is a very long-term activity, and a replacement operating model cannot be implemented in an instant," Pelttari stated.
Russia is also trying to fix the problems of personal intelligence with cyber espionage. However, cyber espionage only partially replaces personal intelligence because the information it provides is of a different nature. In the second half of 2022, Russia's cyber espionage efforts against Finland were even more active.
The threat of terrorism has largely remained unchanged
The threat of terrorism in Finland has remained at level two on a four-point scale, i.e. increased, according to the Finnish Security Police's assessment. The threat of far-right terrorism has intensified, the threat of radical Islamist terrorism has remained unchanged. There are both extreme right-wing and radical Islamist actors in Finland, who probably have the desire and ability to carry out violent attacks.
Individual supporters and small groups of these ideologies pose the most likely threat. In the short term, shocks are unlikely. Illegal weapons spreading from the war zone in Ukraine are likely to increase the violent capacity of extremists in Europe. The updated terrorism threat assessment is included in the yearbook of the Protection Police.