[FREE ACCESS] Intelligence Brief | DRC: Joseph Kabila Sentenced to Death for Treason and War Crimes
Ujasusi Blog’s Great Lakes Region Monitoring Team | 01 October 2025 | 0400 BST
The Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has been plunged into one of the most consequential political moments in its turbulent history after the High Military Court handed down a death sentence to former President Joseph Kabila. The ruling, which found Kabila guilty of treason, war crimes, rape, murder, conspiracy, and war-related propaganda, marks the first time in Congo’s modern history that a former head of state has been sentenced to death.
This dramatic judgment not only strips the former leader of the political comeback he had recently announced but also signals the escalation of DRC’s volatile political environment, where leadership rivalries intersect with ongoing armed conflict in the east.
The Court’s Ruling Against Kabila
On September 30, 2025, after months of speculation and legal maneuvering, the DRC’s High Military Court issued its historic judgment. The court emphasized that Kabila’s conviction for treason was based on his Congolese nationality. Unlike espionage—which Congolese law defines as an offense committed by foreigners—treason is considered the gravest violation that a national leader can commit against the state.
Key charges against Kabila included:
Treason against the Congolese state
War crimes and crimes against humanity, including rape and murder
Conspiracy to destabilise national authority
Propaganda of war crimes is designed to fuel armed conflict
The immediate order for his arrest underscores the court’s demand for swift enforcement, although Kabila’s current location remains unknown. His ability to evade authorities in the coming days will significantly influence both Congolese domestic stability and regional perceptions of power.
The Political Context of Kabila’s Conviction
Return to the Political Arena
Earlier in September 2025, Joseph Kabila declared his readiness to “resume the supreme responsibilities of the Nation.” His announcement was widely interpreted as a signal of an electoral challenge ahead of the 2028 vote, when incumbent President Félix Tshisekedi is constitutionally barred from seeking a third term.
Kabila’s decision to return came after six years away from frontline politics, during which time he retained influence through networks loyal to him in the military, parliament, and regional politics. His comeback resurgence threatened to upend the balance of power, creating uncertainty in an already divided political landscape.
Connections to M23 Insurgency
Perhaps the most controversial claim against Kabila was his alleged support for the M23 rebellion in eastern Congo. The Congolese government has consistently accused former regime loyalists of stoking instability to discredit Tshisekedi’s government, which has struggled to defeat M23 despite backing from both EAC regional forces and MONUSCO’s international presence.
These allegations, forcefully denied by Kabila, were central to the treason charge. By connecting the former president to one of the most destabilising rebel groups in the region, the prosecution successfully established grounds for betrayal of state authority.
Political Ramifications for Tshisekedi’s Government
Kabila’s sentencing significantly boosts President Félix Tshisekedi’s internal standing. Since assuming power in 2019, Tshisekedi has faced relentless criticism over his ability to restore security and deliver governance reforms. By framing Kabila as both a criminal and a destabiliser, Tshisekedi enhances his claim to legitimacy and distances himself from the legacy of his predecessor.
However, the move carries significant risks:
Polarisation of the electorate: Kabila retains a loyal constituency across Katanga and other regions that may perceive the ruling as political persecution.
Risk of retaliation: Elements within the security services and political elite tied to the former president could orchestrate sabotage or renewed insurgency.
Fragility of national unity: With elections only three years away, fears of a violent backlash could erode public trust in institutional stability.
Regional and International Repercussions
Security Implications in East Africa
Eastern Congo continues to be a focal point for the wider region, with Rwanda, Uganda, and Burundi deeply entangled in the ongoing M23 crisis. Allegations of Kabila’s linkage to the rebellion complicate these regional relationships further. Tshisekedi’s government has already accused Rwanda of sponsoring M23, creating overlapping narratives of conspiracy and foreign meddling.
The legal judgment against Kabila thus risks inflaming cross-border suspicions, especially if Kinshasa presents evidence of his regional connections. Leaders in the East African Community (EAC) may now reconsider their stance on cooperation with Congolese opposition actors.
International Legal and Human Rights Dimensions
The use of the death penalty itself invites scrutiny from Western governments and human rights organisations. International NGOs are likely to challenge both the fairness of the trial and the broader implications for human rights in Congo. How Kinshasa navigates these concerns—balancing sovereign legal authority with diplomatic ties—will shape its relations with the EU, US, and UN agencies.
Strategic Scenarios Going Forward
Scenario 1: Successful Arrest and Neutralisation of Kabila
If Kabila is swiftly apprehended, Tshisekedi secures an immediate political victory, affirming state authority over elites and rebels alike. This outcome could consolidate the ruling coalition but risks inflaming civil unrest in Kabila strongholds.
Scenario 2: Kabila Evades Capture and Inspires Resistance
Should Kabila remain in hiding, possibly abroad, he could rally disgruntled elites and sympathetic armed networks, complicating Kinshasa’s security strategy while positioning himself as a martyr of political persecution.
Scenario 3: Negotiation and International Mediation
International actors might step in to urge commutation of Kabila’s death sentence in exchange for reducing political tensions. This would mirror previous African precedents where former leaders accused of grave offences were shielded through negotiated exile.
Implications for the 2028 Elections
Kabila’s death sentence fundamentally alters the trajectory of Congo’s 2028 elections. By removing one of the strongest potential challengers, Tshisekedi’s allies have a clearer path to shaping succession. However, this removal could also spark the rise of new opposition powerbrokers outside the traditional elite system.
The decision also reignites debates over constitutional reform. With Tshisekedi term-limited, ruling party strategists may explore ways to extend influence post-2028—a move likely to meet fierce resistance from both domestic civil society and regional observers.
Outlook: What This Means for DRC’s Stability
The sentencing of Joseph Kabila to death is more than just a legal ruling; it is a seismic event that reshapes Congo’s future political, military, and international trajectory. While Tshisekedi gains short-term authority, the long-term consequences include heightened risks of political violence, regional disputes, and legitimacy challenges.
The DRC finds itself once more at a crossroads: whether it can assert the rule of law and transition toward stable governance, or whether this moment will ignite a new chapter of conflict driven by elite rivalry and congestion of armed groups.
Final Reflection
Joseph Kabila’s downfall—from president and guarantor of relative stability to a fugitive facing execution—epitomises the volatility of Congolese politics. The High Military Court’s ruling delivers symbolic justice for years of alleged atrocities, but it also opens a dangerous phase in the nation’s search for peace and democracy.
Whether history will view this as a defining step toward accountability or the spark of renewed instability depends on how Congo’s leaders, citizens, and regional actors respond in the months ahead.
Please consider becoming a paid subscriber
You can also donate.