D.R. Congo: Is Félix Tshisekedi's Presidency at Risk? Predictive Intelligence Analysis on the Return of Joseph Kabila
Intelligence Analyst: Evarist Chahali
Intelligence Cut-Off Date: April 13, 2025 at 0100 BST
Introduction: A Political Earthquake in the Making
The political equilibrium of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) is facing a possible seismic shift. Former President Joseph Kabila—once the most powerful man in Congolese politics—is making a strategic return to the national stage. His re-emergence, cloaked in ambiguous language about national unity and security, has sparked a wave of speculation about his real intentions. Could his return spell the beginning of the end for President Félix Tshisekedi’s hold on power? This comprehensive intelligence analysis explores the full scope of this unfolding political drama, assessing threats to Tshisekedi's presidency, the strategic calculus of Joseph Kabila, and the evolving landscape of power in the DRC.