The formation of the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CPR) by ICC-convicted warlord Thomas Lubanga marks a dangerous new chapter in the volatile security landscape of the Democratic Republic of Congo’s Ituri Province.
Introduction: New Insurgent Threat Emerges in Eastern Congo
Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has long been a focal point of insurgency, resource-driven conflicts, and regional interference. In a development that could further destabilise this already volatile region, Thomas Lubanga Dyilo—a convicted war criminal and former warlord—has announced the formation of a new armed and political movement, the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CPR).
Currently based in Uganda, Lubanga’s declaration reintroduces one of the most notorious figures of the Second Congo War era into the modern insurgent landscape. His re-emergence poses a direct challenge to Congolese state authority, undermines international peacebuilding efforts, and threatens to deepen regional instability in the Great Lakes region.
Who Is Thomas Lubanga? From ICC Conviction to Rebel Politics
Lubanga first rose to prominence as the head of the Union of Congolese Patriots (UPC), a militia implicated in some of the worst atrocities committed during the Ituri conflict in the early 2000s. In 2012, he became the first person convicted by the International Criminal Court (ICC), found guilty of war crimes for enlisting and using child soldiers. He was sentenced to 14 years in prison and released in 2020, having already served a substantial portion of his sentence.
In a controversial move, Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi appointed Lubanga to a national task force aimed at restoring peace in Ituri. However, Lubanga’s peacebuilding efforts were derailed in 2022 when he was kidnapped by an armed group for two months—a development he later blamed on elements within the government. Since then, he has relocated to Uganda, where he has regrouped politically and militarily.
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The Formation of the CPR: A New Militant-Political Threat in Ituri
Lubanga has confirmed to Reuters that he has launched the Convention for the Popular Revolution (CPR), a hybrid entity combining armed militant capabilities with a political front. According to Lubanga, the CPR has already established a military presence in at least three locations within Ituri Province.
While he has not declared any active operations yet, his statement made it clear that the group sees “an immediate change in governance and government” as essential for peace in Ituri. This language echoes longstanding rebel narratives in the DRC, many of which have used political grievance as a justification for armed violence.
Armed Elements and Regional Ramifications
Though the exact size and structure of the CPR’s armed wing remain unclear, UN intelligence reports from 2024 have already accused Lubanga of mobilising fighters to support local militias and possibly even the Rwanda-backed M23 insurgency. These allegations, if true, indicate a significant escalation in Lubanga’s ambitions and hint at inter-factional alliances that could dramatically reshape the region’s security matrix.
The CPR’s emergence must therefore be analysed not in isolation, but as part of a wider ecosystem of armed insurgencies, including:
M23 Rebels in North Kivu
CODECO and FPIC militias in Ituri
Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) in Beni and Irumu
Islamic State Central Africa Province (ISCAP) operating across eastern DRC and parts of Uganda
Eastern Congo’s Fragile Security Architecture
The re-emergence of Lubanga as a rebel leader comes at a time when eastern DRC is experiencing an unprecedented surge in violence, particularly in Ituri Province, where communal killings, displacement, and militia attacks are again reaching crisis levels. Recent reports from Médecins Sans Frontières (Doctors Without Borders) highlight that more than 200 civilians have been killed and over 100,000 displaced since the start of 2025.
Despite the deployment of Ugandan troops to Ituri under a bilateral arrangement with Kinshasa to combat the ADF insurgency, the situation remains out of control. The CPR's entry into this chaotic environment adds another layer of complexity and suggests a multi-front conflict scenario is emerging.
Uganda’s Dilemma: Haven or Host?
Lubanga's current residence in Uganda raises serious diplomatic and intelligence concerns. Given Uganda’s active military operations in the DRC and its partnership with Kinshasa, questions will inevitably arise about whether Kampala is knowingly tolerating a war criminal on its soil—or if it is simply unable or unwilling to act.
Historically, both Uganda and Rwanda have been accused of harbouring or supporting rebel proxies in eastern Congo. Lubanga’s presence in Uganda, therefore, risks triggering diplomatic tensions, complicating counterinsurgency coordination, and undermining regional peace frameworks such as the Nairobi Process and Luanda Roadmap.
The Geopolitical Stakes: Great Lakes on the Brink
The Lubanga-CPR development must also be viewed within the broader context of Great Lakes geopolitics. The DRC-Rwanda-Uganda triangle has long been the epicentre of proxy warfare, transnational militia movements, and resource plundering. The M23 rebellion, widely believed to be supported by Rwanda, has already drawn widespread condemnation and led to diplomatic strains between Kinshasa and Kigali.
The introduction of a new group led by an internationally convicted war criminal with potential ties to existing armed networks introduces the possibility of new alliances, new battlefronts, and renewed ethnic violence.
The DRC’s upcoming presidential elections, increasing anti-UN sentiment, and dwindling MONUSCO effectiveness only serve to magnify the risk of full-scale regional conflagration.
Lack of Government Response and International Silence
As of this writing, the Congolese Presidency has not issued any formal comment on Lubanga’s CPR announcement. Similarly, regional organisations such as the African Union, SADC, and ICGLR have remained silent. This silence could be attributed to the diplomatic sensitivity of Lubanga’s past ICC conviction and current residence in a neighbouring country.
However, the United Nations Security Council, ICC, and regional mediators will likely face mounting pressure to:
Reassess DDR efforts in Ituri
Track transnational rebel funding
Demand Uganda clarify Lubanga’s status
Strengthen border intelligence sharing
Conclusion: A Precedent of Impunity and a Preview of Escalation
Thomas Lubanga’s return to militant politics via the CPR should serve as a wake-up call to Congolese authorities, international stakeholders, and regional powers. His case is a striking example of impunity breeding further instability. From warlord to convicted war criminal to peace envoy—and now rebel leader once more—Lubanga's journey encapsulates the deep-rooted dysfunctions of the DRC’s post-conflict transitions.
Without robust intervention and strategic foresight, the CPR may very well become the next major destabilising force in a region already stretched thin by competing threats.
Written by Ujasusi Blog Team
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