Botswana's Ruling Party Loses Election: Examining Why Tanzania's Election in 2025 Likely Won't Follow Suit

Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC) presidential candidate Duma Boko (L) casts his ballot in Gaborone on October 30, 2024, during Botswana's general election. © Monirul Bhuiyan, AFP

In a stunning turn of events, Botswana's 2024 general election has resulted in a seismic shift in the country's political landscape. The long-ruling Botswana Democratic Party (BDP), led by President Mokgweetsi Masisi, has lost its parliamentary majority for the first time since the country's independence in 1966[1]. The opposition Umbrella for Democratic Change (UDC), headed by Harvard-educated human rights lawyer Duma Boko, has emerged victorious, marking a historic moment in Botswana's democratic journey.

This article examines Botswana's 2024 election upset, where the opposition UDC ended the BDP's 58-year rule. It explores the reasons behind this historic shift and contrasts it with Tanzania's political landscape, arguing why a similar outcome is improbable in Tanzania's 2025 election. The piece highlights key differences between the two countries' political systems, opposition strength, and ruling party dominance, offering insights into the diverse nature of democratic transitions in Africa.