⚠️ Intelligence Brief: Al-Shabaab’s Threat of Encircling Mogadishu and the Risk of a Taliban-Style Takeover in Somalia
Ujasusi Blog’s Horn of Africa Monitoring Team | 17 August 2025 | 2305 BST
📝 Executive Summary
Recent warnings by former Somali President Sheikh Sharif Sheikh Ahmed that Al-Shabaab is encircling Mogadishu highlight the group’s intensifying campaign to pressure the Somali capital. Parallel reports from Horn Observer confirm that Al-Shabaab has besieged the strategic coastal town of Xarardheere in central Somalia, while also expanding its influence into villages near Mogadishu. These developments come amid AQAP’s calls for Al-Shabaab to replicate the Taliban’s Afghanistan-style victory, and growing evidence of hybrid insurgent tactics that blend governance with urban and rural encirclement.