Africa’s Security Quagmire: Intelligence Failure, Politicisation, or Politics? Diagnosis and Roadmap Out
Ujasusi Blog - Africa Strategic Security Desk |🗓️22 July 2025 |🕜0020 BST
Table of Contents
Executive Summary
Conceptual Framework: Intelligence, Politics, and Politicisation
Regional Overview: North Africa to Southern Africa
Core Causality Question: Would Professional Intelligence Prevent Instability?
Diagnosing Politicisation: Indicators and Typology
Practical Solutions and Reform Roadmap
Obstacles to Reform and Risk Mitigation
Strategic Synthesis
Conclusion
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)
References (Open-Source Concepts)
1. Executive Summary
Across Africa—from the authoritarian drift in Tunisia, persistent coups in the Sahel, insurgency and interstate tensions in the Horn of Africa, hybrid authoritarianism in East Africa, chronic fragility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), to governance erosion in Southern Africa—state resilience is being challenged. This long‑form intelligence analysis addresses a central strategic question: Is instability primarily caused by politicised intelligence services, and would independent, professional intelligence agencies reverse authoritarianism, corruption, and terrorism?
Analytic Hypothesis (to be tested): The working proposition is that, although politicisation of intelligence aggravates insecurity, it is not the sole or primary driver of Africa’s instability; deeper structural political‑economic factors shape outcomes. The following sections evaluate this hypothesis, consider alternative explanations (pure intelligence failure vs. pure political causation), and then derive a multi‑layered roadmap out of the current quagmire.