Africa Terrorism Monitor: 2025 Annual Intelligence Review
Complete Incident Timeline, Casualty Statistics, and Territorial Control Assessment (January-December 2025)
Ujasusi Blog’s Terrorism Monitor Desk | 20 December 2025 | 0250 GMT
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Africa Terrorism Monitor: 2025 Annual Intelligence Review
Verified Attacks, Casualty Analysis, and Strategic Assessment Across Five Major Conflict Zones
What Happened with African Terrorism in 2025?
Between January 1 and December 12, 2025, terrorist violence across Africa escalated to historic levels across five major conflict zones: the Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, Horn of Africa, Great Lakes region, and Mozambique. Al-Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates achieved unprecedented territorial gains while conducting thousands of attacks against civilian and military targets.
Documented 2025 casualties include at least 2,266 people killed in Nigeria’s Lake Chad Basin in the first six months alone—a figure that already surpassed all of 2024. Combined with hundreds more verified deaths across other regions and thousands of additional casualties in the Sahel’s 3,800+ documented attacks, 2025 represents one of the deadliest years for African terrorism on record.
Key Findings by Region:
🔴 Sahel Region (Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger)
JNIM (al-Qaeda) seized multiple provincial capitals including Djibo (May 11) and Diapaga (May 13), with over 300 people killed in these operations alone
JNIM now controls approximately 50% of Burkina Faso outside the capital
3,800+ attacks documented through mid-October 2025
First JNIM expansion into Nigeria (Kwara State)
Cumulative impact since 2019: 77,000+ deaths, 28,000+ attacks
🔴 Lake Chad Basin (Nigeria, Chad, Cameroon, Niger)
2,266 people killed in first six months of 2025—surpassing total for all of 2024
ISWAP deployed weaponised drones for first time (March 24, 2025)
Boko Haram killed approximately 200 ISWAP fighters in November naval invasion
ISWAP attacked four military bases within 24 hours (May 12-13)
Konduga suicide bombing killed 12+ civilians (June 21)
Mallam Karamti & Kwatandashi massacres: ~100 civilians killed (May 15)
🔴 Horn of Africa (Somalia, Kenya)
Al-Shabaab launched Shabelle Offensive (Operation Ramadan) on February 20
Presidential assassination attempt in Mogadishu (March 18, 2025)—first direct attack on president since 2014
50% increase in monthly attacks compared to 2024 average in Hiiraan and Middle Shabelle regions
Nearly 60,000 people displaced in Middle Shabelle region alone (January-July)
Group advanced to within 50 kilometres of Mogadishu
Major prison assault near presidential palace (October 4-5)
20+ Ugandan AUSSOM peacekeepers killed in July SVBIED attacks
🔴 Great Lakes (DRC, Uganda)
ADF/ISCAP civilian fatalities rose 68% in first part of 2025—second-deadliest quarter for civilian targeting since 1997
113 civilians massacred in systematic attacks across Makoko/Muhangi parish (January 13-20)
70+ Christians beheaded inside Protestant church in Kasanga (February 12-15)
70+ civilians killed in five-day Walese Vonkutu massacre (July 9-13)
43 civilians killed in Komanda church attack during night vigil (July 27)
100+ killed in September escalation
First attempted suicide bombing in Uganda since 2023 (June 2025)
🔴 Mozambique (Cabo Delgado, Nampula)
57,034 people displaced in July-August escalation (13,343 families)
120+ children abducted throughout 2025 for forced labour, forced marriage, and combat roles
Child soldiers as young as 13 deployed in Macomia town raid (May)
ISIS-Mozambique expanded into previously unaffected southern districts of Cabo Delgado
5 killed in explosive device incidents in Mocímboa da Praia (June)
Over 850,000 people displaced from conflict and climate crisis as of August 2025
What Changed in 2025?
Territorial Control Shifts:
JNIM captured and held provincial capitals (Djibo, Diapaga)—not just hit-and-run raids
Al-Shabaab reversed territorial gains from 2022 government offensive
ISIS-Mozambique expanded geographic footprint into southern Cabo Delgado districts
Tactical Evolution:
ISWAP’s first weaponised drone deployment (March 24, 2025)—previously used only for surveillance
Coordinated multi-base assaults: four military bases attacked within 24 hours
Sophisticated suicide vehicle-borne IED (SVBIED) operations by Al-Shabaab
Inter-Jihadist Warfare:
Boko Haram vs ISWAP naval invasion killed approximately 200 ISWAP fighters (November 5-8)
Competition for Lake Chad Basin territorial control
Groups fighting each other while simultaneously conducting operations against government forces
Sectarian Targeting:
Multiple church massacres by ADF/ISCAP in eastern DRC
Over 150 Christians killed in documented targeted attacks on places of worship
Systematic beheadings and village burnings
Why Did Violence Increase?
Security Force Degradation:
Multinational Joint Task Force (MNJTF) collapsed after Chad (January 2025) and Niger (April 2025) withdrew troops
African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) chronically underfunded
Nigerian military “supercamp” strategy created security vacuums in rural areas
Political Crises Creating Opportunities:
Tanzania October 2025 election crisis and post-election violence
Mozambique post-election violence (following disputed October 2024 elections) diverted security forces from counterinsurgency
Somalia federal government conflicts with Puntland and Jubaland undermined coordination
Failed Counterterrorism Approaches:
Military-only strategies without corresponding governance improvements
Inadequate reintegration programs for former fighters leading to recidivism
Root causes—poverty, youth unemployment, marginalisation, corruption—largely unaddressed
What Are the Biggest Threats for 2026?
🚨 Critical Warning Indicators:
JNIM potential expansion toward West African coast (Benin, Togo, Ghana)
Al-Shabaab potential encirclement or assault on Mogadishu
ISIS-Mozambique expansion into Nampula province or cross-border into Tanzania
Further MNJTF collapse enabling ISWAP/Boko Haram territorial consolidation in Lake Chad Basin
ADF/ISCAP continued exploitation of M23 crisis diverting FARDC attention in eastern DRC
Groups to Watch:
JNIM (most successful al-Qaeda affiliate globally; controls ~50% of Burkina Faso)
Al-Shabaab (50% operational tempo increase; advanced to 50km from Mogadishu)
ISWAP (tactical innovation leader; weaponised drone deployment)
ADF/ISCAP (now one of Islamic State’s most violent affiliates toward civilians globally)
How Was This Research Conducted?
This intelligence assessment synthesises verified open-source reporting from:
International news agencies (Al Jazeera, Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, The Guardian)
Security analysis organisations (The Soufan Centre, Institute for Security Studies Africa, Critical Threats Project, Combating Terrorism Centre at West Point)
Conflict data platforms (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project - ACLED)
United Nations and African Union reports
Academic research institutions
Regional media and civil society monitoring organisations
Methodology: Incident-by-incident verification through triangulation of multiple independent sources, casualty figure cross-referencing where possible, and strategic analysis based on documented pattern recognition.
Critical Limitations:
This is NOT a complete accounting of all terrorist incidents in 2025
Many attacks in remote areas go unreported in international media
Casualty figures are often estimates with significant uncertainty; different sources frequently report conflicting numbers
Some incidents lack clear attribution
Comprehensive verification of all details is impossible without field access
This report represents open-source research by an individual analyst, not an official intelligence product
📥 Download the Full Report
✅ Detailed incident timelines with specific dates, locations, casualty figures, and direct source links for every major documented attack
✅ Regional breakdowns with strategic analysis for Sahel, Lake Chad Basin, Horn of Africa, Great Lakes, and Mozambique
✅ Complete Part 4 analysis examining non-terror violence with exploitation potential (Tanzania October 2025 election massacres, Mozambique post-election crisis)
✅ Global roundup covering ISIS-K (Afghanistan/Pakistan), al-Qaeda (Yemen/Syria), and far-right terrorism trends
✅ 2026 threat projections and warning indicators for regional escalation
✅ Complete source citations with clickable hyperlinks for independent verification
✅ Comprehensive methodology and limitations section explaining research approach and data constraints
📄 [DOWNLOAD FULL REPORT: Africa Terrorism Monitor 2025 Annual Intelligence Review]
Report compiled December 20, 2025 by Ujasusi Blog’s Terrorism Monitoring Desk
Research period covered: January 1 - December 12, 2025
Methodology: Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysis with verified citations