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Ujasusi Blog

Intelligence Insight: The Rise of Private Spy Firms in African Conflicts

Evarist Chahali's avatar
Evarist Chahali
Sep 13, 2025
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Ujasusi Blog - African Strategic Intelligence Desk | 13 September 2025 | 0615 BST


The African battlespace is being privatised—not just through guns-for-hire, but through intelligence-for-hire. Since the collapse of Russia’s Wagner Group after the June 2023 mutiny and the death of Yevgeny Prigozhin in August 2023, the Kremlin has nationalised Wagner’s African portfolio under the Africa Corps, a Defence Ministry-run expeditionary force that packages military muscle, disinformation and regime-survival intelligence into turnkey “Regime Survival Packages”. Parallel Western, Emirati, Israeli, Turkish and Chinese private intelligence outfits are scaling up equally fast, turning African conflict zones into the world’s largest live-fire market for outsourced espionage.

1. Why Private Intelligence Is Booming in Africa

1.1 Sovereignty Gaps

  • Coup belts (Sahel, Sudan, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger) lack national intelligence fusion centres.

  • UN & French withdrawals (Mali 2023, Niger 2024) created ISR vacuums (Intelligence, Surveillance, Reconnaissance).

  • Sanction-hit juntas cannot buy Western platforms, so they barter mining concessions for intelligence services.

1.2 Resource-Backed Intelligence Deals

“Resources-for-Intelligence” is the new “resources-for-guns”.
Template deal structure (2024–25)

  1. The host government grants exclusive exploration rights to a shell company linked to the intelligence provider.

  2. Provider deploys SIGINT & drone teams to protect mines, monitor rebels and spy on political opponents.

  3. Revenue from resource exports is split between state coffers and offshore accounts controlled by the intelligence firm’s parent consortium.

2. Actor Mapping 2025

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