A Spy Guide to Dark Arts: How Tundu Lissu’s Votes in Chadema's Election in Tanzania Are at Risk of Being Stolen—and How to Prevent It
On January 21, 2025, Tanzania’s leading opposition party, CHADEMA, is set to hold a crucial internal election that has sparked significant political intrigue and speculation. The party’s current chairman, Freeman Mbowe, faces a stiff challenge from Tundu Lissu, the Mainland Vice Chair and a prominent opposition figure. However, the build-up to the election has been overshadowed by allegations of potential interference by "the system," a term often used to refer to the intelligence agency, TISS. On December 19, CHADEMA Secretary-General John Mnyika claimed that there were plans to disrupt the election, raising concerns about its integrity. Last week, Lissu echoed Mnyika's warning and issued a list of recommendations to safeguard the election process. These included ensuring only eligible voters and candidates are present in the venue, holding the election during daylight hours, maintaining transparency in voting, counting, and result announcement processes, and inviting religious leaders, foreign diplomats, and international organizations as observers. These measures aim to guarantee a free, fair, and transparent election while countering potential disruptions.
A Spy’s Guide to Dark Arts: Chadema’s election special.
This week’s edition of “A Spy’s Guide To” on the Ujasusi Blog takes a deep dive into one of the most contentious topics in Tanzanian politics: CHADEMA’s upcoming January 21 election. With Freeman Mbowe and Tundu Lissu locked in a high-stakes battle for the party’s chairmanship, the column focuses on the vulnerabilities of the electoral process and how so-called "dark arts"—a term for covert and often unethical tactics used to manipulate outcomes—could undermine the integrity of the vote. Inspired by Tundu Lissu’s list of recommendations to safeguard the election, the guide analyzes how these measures, though well-intentioned, remain susceptible to exploitation.
The article will explore the ways elections can be manipulated, even under stringent guidelines, and highlight why the recommendations—such as ensuring only eligible participants are present, conducting the election in broad daylight, and maintaining transparency in vote counting—are not foolproof. For each recommendation, the column will outline potential vulnerabilities and propose actionable strategies to strengthen the safeguards, ensuring the election remains free from manipulation. This focus on the "dark arts" of election interference ties directly to the headline, emphasizing the need for vigilance and innovation in countering such threats.